Resolves YES if the 2026 Booker Prize (winner announced at the ceremony scheduled for 9 November 2026) is awarded to Marlon James (The Disappearers) or Douglas Stuart (John of John), the two previous winners on the shortlist (James won in 2015, Stuart in 2020).
Resolves NO if it goes to any of the other four shortlisted books: Black Bag (Luke Kennard), The End of Everything (M. John Harrison), May We Feed the King (Rebecca Perry), The Things We Never Say (Elizabeth Strout).
Only four authors have ever won the Booker twice (J.M. Coetzee, Peter Carey, Hilary Mantel, Margaret Atwood). This asks whether a fifth gets added this year.
Resolution source: the official announcement at thebookerprizes.com. If the prize is shared, resolves YES if either co-winner is James or Stuart. If the ceremony is postponed, the close date is extended to the actual announcement.
1,000Opening at 50%. Bookies have Marlon James as clear favourite (~6/5 at OLBG) and Stuart is the other past winner, so together it's near a coin flip. Against: only four people have ever won twice. A big odds swing before Nov 9 would move me. https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2026