On Oct 21, 2026, after meeting US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in St Petersburg, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia is in principle ready to resume trilateral US–Russia–Ukraine negotiations "around the 10th of November". Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later said the round is planned for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi.
This market resolves to the date bucket in which the first in-person trilateral session actually takes place.
What counts: official delegations from the United States, Russia and Ukraine meeting in person in the same session (any level, including technical level), anywhere in the world, on or after November 1, 2026. Separate bilateral meetings held in the same city on the same day (US–Russia, then US–Ukraine) do NOT count unless reporting says the three delegations met together. Video calls do not count.
Date: the first day the three delegations meet together, using the local date at the venue.
Source: Reuters or AP reporting that the trilateral session took place, with Kyiv Independent / Ukrainska Pravda / TASS as backup. Announcements and schedules do not count; only reports that the meeting happened.
If no qualifying session takes place by November 30, 2026 (venue local time), resolves "Not by November 30".
1,000My rough numbers: Nov 1–9 about 7%, Nov 10–15 about 30%, Nov 16–30 about 23%, not by Nov 30 about 40%.
Why: on Oct 21 Putin's aide Ushakov said Russia is ready to resume the three-way talks "around the 10th of November" (Ukrainska Pravda). On Oct 23 Peskov said they're planned for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi (Hurriyet Daily News). Both sides have said yes. But these talks have been stalled since the start of the year, and a planned date slipping a week or two is normal, so I don't trust the Nov 10 date much.
What would change my mind: Ukraine naming its delegation and a date (Nov 10–15 up), or a big strike on either capital or Russia adding preconditions (not by Nov 30 up). Separate US–Russia and US–Ukraine meetings in the same city don't count; the three delegations have to sit together.