The current stopgap (H.R. 6500, signed in early September 2026) funds the federal government through Friday, December 11, 2026. That deadline falls in the lame-duck session right after the November 3 midterms.
How this resolves. I check the state of federal funding at 11:59 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 13, 2026, and resolve to exactly one answer:
Shutdown: if AP or Reuters report that federal appropriations lapsed (a full or partial government shutdown began) at any time between 12:01 a.m. ET Dec 12 and 11:59 p.m. ET Dec 13, this answer wins, however short the lapse and whatever passes afterwards. A short CR that is signed in time and then lapses inside that window also counts.
Otherwise I look at the next funding deadline, meaning the earliest date on which regular appropriations for any federal agency expire under law enacted by then (bill text and enactment on congress.gov). If some agencies get full-year bills and others get a CR, the CR date is the next deadline.
December 2026 (another short punt, e.g. a CR to Dec 18)
January 2027
February or March 2027
April 2027 or later (includes full-year funding for every agency through Sept 30, 2027)
Sources: congress.gov for enacted text and dates; AP/Reuters for whether a lapse happened. Trading closes at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec 11. If the official record is unclear on Dec 14 I wait for it rather than guess.
For context, the last three lame ducks after a midterm: 2010 used several short CRs and then one to March 4, 2011; 2018 used a short CR to Dec 21 and then shut down on Dec 22; 2022 used a one-week CR and then passed an omnibus.
1,000My rough take: shutdown 8%, another December punt 35%, January 25%, Feb–Mar 20%, April or later 12%. Lame ducks usually buy a week or two first (2010, 2018, 2022 all did), and a top GOP appropriator expects another stopgap: https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/gop-cardinal-predicts-stopgap-to-fund-government-past-december. A fight over ICE money would raise my shutdown odds.