Will Israel raid the Gaza aid flotilla before it reaches Gaza?
22
100Ṁ1638
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
YES

If Israeli military or law enforcement board any vessel without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers, this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

I will not bet on this market.

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Source: https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1973084972958294029

The sad part is many Israelis will believe this at face value.

How will this resolve if the flotilla never reaches gaza due to reasons other than the Israeli military?

@MaxMorehead It'd resolve NO as long as the flotilla is not raided, even if Israeli military is involved (e.g. if they make it so that the flotilla can't keep going but they never board any vessel it still resolves NO).

I'll be so happy to be wrong here.

I'm uncertain now given that so many ships are involved and they are being escorted by military ships. But I suspect the military escort might remain in international waters which might allow Israel to attack flotilla after they're in Palestinian waters.

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