Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025?
101
1.1k
1.7k
2025
1.1%
chance

If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2025, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.

If AI has not wiped out humanity by then, we have the related questions where LeCun or Tegmark battle to defeat the AI:

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Manifold turns off loans and my extinction risk this year quadruples.

My timelines were very reliant on the manifold team's approval index being above 50%

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@MartinRandall I don't understand the joke. This is a joke, right?

@HankyUSA this market spiked upwards because of future changes to the the Manifold economy (I expect) and the joke is I'm pretending it's an accurate reflection of extinction risk.

@MartinRandall Oh. Thanks for explaining. I didn't know about Announcement - A sustainable mana economy. Maybe I should stop betting in these long term markets.

⚠UNRESOLVED & Re-Opened

📢Resolution Made Early Without Proof

📝I f@TeddyWeverka would like to N/A the market, that is their choice.

📝If Creator has proof, please post it.

predicts NO

@SirCryptomind if you are gonna do this for one market, why not all that he just resolved?

@MarcusAbramovitch Good question. I'll check over his previous resolves. This and the 2026 were posted in "Please Resolve" on discord, hence the attention.

@MarcusAbramovitch Seems malicious.

All of them are UNRESOLVED & REOPENED.
Offered Teddy to N/A them.
Seems Malicious, imo.

@TeddyWeverka Do you have a source?
And why not just N/A and admit this was a ridiculous AI doom market(imo)?

sold Ṁ1,287 of NO

@LukeHanks i will happily fill orders at 1%

bought Ṁ383 of YES

while it may seem individually correct, given you won't be able to use your mana if the market resolves yes, youre only incentivizing me by voting no so hard. (satire)