Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before January 20, 2029, a coup d'état or attempted coup d'état occurs or is officially determined to have been planned in the United States, and the Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's reductions of military general and flag officers were a planned, preparatory step for that coup or attempted coup.

This market will resolve to NO if:

• No coup or attempted coup occurs in the United States by January 20, 2029.

• A coup or coup attempt occurs, but the officers currently being removed by Hegseth are reinstated as part of the coup.

• A coup or coup attempt occurs, but the current cuts are officially determined to have been purely administrative, reorganizational, or unrelated to this unconstitutional seizure of power.

The market creator will resolve the market based on verifiable public reports and official government documentation available by the resolution date.

Background

In September 2026, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced a sweeping plan to cut 20% of general and admiral positions across the military by January 1, 2027. This decision doubled a previous 10% reduction ordered in May 2025. Hegseth and President Donald Trump have framed the cuts as necessary measures to eliminate bureaucratic layers, restore "warrior ethos," and target what they term "woke" department policies. Critics and some political commentators have raised concerns over the scale of these sudden leadership purges, leading to public speculation regarding the underlying motivations of the sweeping top-brass restructuring.