Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?
Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?
31
1kṀ12k2050
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.09512
Resolves YES if by 2050 (or earlier) there emerges a consensus that the proof is correct, or at least a number of prominent complexity theorists describe it as such.
(Things that will be sufficient for a YES: Scott Aaronson or Terry Tao publicly endorses the proof not on April 1st. Wikipedia article for p vs np problem states that it's solved by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou and the edit sticks indefinitely. Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou receive a Fields prize or the Millennium prize.)
Otherwise NO.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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