Resolves YES to the option that matches the final result of the Algeria–Austria match and the qualification status of the two teams after all group-stage tiebreakers have been applied. All other options resolve NO
This market is intended to capture the widely anticipated Gijón-style scenario in which a draw - and depending on other results possibly even more outcomes - sends both teams through. If a draw unexpectedly does not qualify both teams, the draw option will still resolve YES for practical resolution purposes.
Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”, when West Germany’s 1–0 win over Austria sent both teams through at Algeria’s expense. Algerian fans waved banknotes as the teams largely stopped attacking.
As this is the final match of the group stage, both teams have complete information about all possible qualification scenarios and may even have incentives to prefer one finishing position over another.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ4,987 | |
| 2 | Ṁ140 | |
| 3 | Ṁ116 | |
| 4 | Ṁ108 | |
| 5 | Ṁ46 |
@JussiVilleHeiskanen doesn not matter. Draw sends them both through. Two days ago there was the small possibility that 4 points would not be enough
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Roughly one in a million. I intentionally didn't include the "draw but one team doesn't qualify" outcome because it was virtually impossible, whereas "Algeria loses and still qualifies" remained a realistic (albeit small) possibility until yesterday results
another version:
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
/Mochi/2026-fifa-world-cup-prop-bets