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MANIFOLD
Who will win the Ballon D’Or 2026?
8
Ṁ125Ṁ226
Nov 30
35%
Lamine Yamal
38%
Harry Kane
10%
Ousmane Dembele
7%
Kylian Mbappe
10%
Lionel Messi

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official announcement of the winner of the 2026 Men's Ballon d'Or (70th edition) co-organized by France Football and UEFA.

  • The primary source of truth will be official announcements on UEFA and L'Équipe / France Football.

  • The award ceremony is scheduled for October 26, 2026. The market will resolve once the official winner is crowned.

  • If one of the listed players wins, that player's option will resolve to YES and all other options will resolve to NO.

  • If any player not included in the answers list wins the 2026 Men's Ballon d'Or, the entire market will resolve to N/A, as the answers list is fixed and addAnswersMode is disabled.

Background

The 2026 Ballon d'Or evaluates player performance over the course of the 2025/26 season (spanning from August 2025 to August 2026) rather than a calendar year. This timeline heavily weights performances in the 2026 FIFA World Cup alongside domestic league and European club campaigns.

France Football has re-confirmed that playing outside of European leagues does not disqualify a player, leaving MLS-based Lionel Messi in contention alongside Europe-based stars like Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane, Ousmane Dembele, and Kylian Mbappe. Because the choice list is locked and cannot be expanded, the market will void (N/A) if any unlisted candidate wins.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market context
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