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MANIFOLD
Who will win the Ballon D’Or 2026?
19
Ṁ125Ṁ1.1k
Nov 30
21%
Lamine Yamal
61%
Harry Kane
1.5%
Ousmane Dembele
11%
Kylian Mbappe
5%
Lionel Messi

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official announcement of the winner of the 2026 Men's Ballon d'Or (70th edition) co-organized by France Football and UEFA.

  • The primary source of truth will be official announcements on UEFA and L'Équipe / France Football.

  • The award ceremony is scheduled for October 26, 2026. The market will resolve once the official winner is crowned.

  • If one of the listed players wins, that player's option will resolve to YES and all other options will resolve to NO.

  • If any player not included in the answers list wins the 2026 Men's Ballon d'Or, the entire market will resolve to N/A, as the answers list is fixed and addAnswersMode is disabled.

Background

The 2026 Ballon d'Or evaluates player performance over the course of the 2025/26 season (spanning from August 2025 to August 2026) rather than a calendar year. This timeline heavily weights performances in the 2026 FIFA World Cup alongside domestic league and European club campaigns.

France Football has re-confirmed that playing outside of European leagues does not disqualify a player, leaving MLS-based Lionel Messi in contention alongside Europe-based stars like Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane, Ousmane Dembele, and Kylian Mbappe. Because the choice list is locked and cannot be expanded, the market will void (N/A) if any unlisted candidate wins.

Market context
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