Question: Will I receive a grade of 4 or higher in my current, ongoing university futurology course? This course is graded solely based on a written assignment about a chosen futurology method. For this assignment, I have chosen to focus on the prediction market method, and creating this market is part of my written work. 

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve as "Yes" if I receive a grade of 4 or 5. It will resolve as "No" in all other scenarios, including if I drop out of the course or fail to complete it for any other reason.

Resolution Date: The final deadline for submitting the written assignment is October 23, 2023. The final grading is expected to take an additional 1-2 months. Therefore, I anticipate that this market will be resolved by the end of 2023 at the latest.

Background Information: 
- Our grading scale ranges from 0 (fail) to 5 (highest grade). 
- My grades for the past three futurology courses have been 4, 4, and 4. 
- Unlike past courses, which were graded based on multiple smaller tasks, this course is graded solely on one written assignment.

I plan to provide updates on my progress in the comments section, or at the very least, I will notify participants when I have submitted the written assignment.