Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if artificial general intelligence (AGI)—sometimes called human-level intelligence AI—is a type of artificial intelligence that would match or surpass human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks is publicly announced or demonstrated after December 31, 2027. Resolution will be based on credible announcements from major AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta, or equivalent) or peer-reviewed publications establishing that AGI has been achieved. The market resolves NO if no such credible announcement occurs by the end of 2027.

Background

The consensus among experts and prediction markets placed the median expected arrival of AGI around the year 2058 before recent advances in large language models. In four years, the mean estimate on Metaculus for when AGI will be developed has plummeted from 50 years to five years.

Recent forecasts vary significantly. As of December 2024, forecasters on Metaculus average a 25% chance of AGI by 2027 and 50% by 2031. As of December 2025, 1,700 participants answered the question "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" and the prediction is 31 Oct 2027. The CEOs of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic have all predicted that AGI will arrive within the next 5 years.

Considerations

Few people agree on what AGI is to begin with—experts in computer and cognitive science, and others in policy and ethics, often have their own distinct understanding of the concept. This definitional ambiguity may affect resolution. Additionally, Ali Farhadi, the CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, told The New York Times: "I'm all for projections and forecasts, but this [AI 2027] forecast doesn't seem to be grounded in scientific evidence, or the reality of how things are evolving in AI."