Will either of SBF's parents be charged by the end of 2023 with a crime for their involvement with FTX / Alameda Research?
54
375
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Will resolve YES if charges are published from official government source or other highly reputable sources on or before Dec 31, 2023.

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ500 of NO

Only two more months here. I think it's probably at 10% but I've already put 1.4kM$ in this market so I'm saturated.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Ernie They'll very likely be charged, but in won't happen in 2023. After SBF's trial concludes, the SEC will need to do a lot of work going through all of the documents and doing more discovery. It's a complicated and very high profile case, so they won't be in a hurry and will want to make sure everything is covered.

Not to mention that the other executives who ran FTX haven't gone to trial yet and will be much higher priority. For example, check the market for when/if Sam Trabucco (fmr co-CEO of Alameda) gets charged:

https://manifold.markets/thecusp/will-former-ftx-exec-sam-trabucco-b

sold Ṁ135 of YES

@thecusp I think you are correct - the timing is the dominating factor for this market. I've moved my money to your 2025 market.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

What crime are they expected to have committed?

predicted YES

@DeanValentine Did their money come from FTX? If so, I'd look into their knowledge of the fraud. It would be pretty messed up if he posted bail with laundered FTX assets. Are they helping him because he's an overgrown man-child or because he has leverage?

I should start a separate market excluding 'obstruction of justice' because the Justice Department uses that as a catch-all for actions after the fact if the want to prosecute regardless.

predicted NO

@TANSTAAFL He was released on personal recognizance bail. His parents didn't have to put up anything.

predicted NO

@TANSTAAFL

Are they helping him because he's an overgrown many child or because he has leverage

Or they're helping him because they're his parents?

Subsidized.

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