@Ernie They'll very likely be charged, but in won't happen in 2023. After SBF's trial concludes, the SEC will need to do a lot of work going through all of the documents and doing more discovery. It's a complicated and very high profile case, so they won't be in a hurry and will want to make sure everything is covered.

Not to mention that the other executives who ran FTX haven't gone to trial yet and will be much higher priority. For example, check the market for when/if Sam Trabucco (fmr co-CEO of Alameda) gets charged:

https://manifold.markets/thecusp/will-former-ftx-exec-sam-trabucco-b

Will former FTX exec Sam Trabucco be charged with a crime by 2025?

76% chance. Sam Trabucco aka sam2 was friends with Sam Bankman-Fried at MIT and they worked at Jane Street together. Trabucco joined Alameda Research in March 2019, and officially became the co-CEO in October 2021 along with Caroline Ellison. He stepped down in August 2022, just before FTX imploded. Federal prosecutors have spoken with him as part of their investigations and the FTX bankruptcy has uncovered more than $15m in cash payments to him, as well as $2.5m for his yacht, "Soak My Deck". Resolves to "Yes" if he's charged with any crime or a plea deal before the end of 2024.

predicted YES

@thecusp /Ernie/will-sam-bankmanfrieds-father-or-mo

sold Ṁ135 of YES

@thecusp I think you are correct - the timing is the dominating factor for this market. I've moved my money to your 2025 market.

predicted NO

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-09-14/sam-bankman-fried-s-parents-did-they-enable-ftx-s-rise

predicted YES

Sam Bankman-Fried funding defense with $10M of stolen Alameda money gifted to his father: lawsuit

Sam Bankman-Fried paid his defense $10 million using funds that were stolen from FTX’s sister hedge fund, Alameda, and then gifted to his father, longtime Stanford law professor Joseph Bankma…

predicted YES

https://nypost.com/2023/07/21/sbf-spent-10m-of-stolen-alameda-money-on-lawyers-lawsuit/amp/

https://nypost.com/2023/01/13/sam-bankman-frieds-father-joseph-bankman-lawyers-up-as-ftx-probe-progresses/

bought Ṁ50 of NO

What crime are they expected to have committed?

predicted YES

@DeanValentine Did their money come from FTX? If so, I'd look into their knowledge of the fraud. It would be pretty messed up if he posted bail with laundered FTX assets. Are they helping him because he's an overgrown man-child or because he has leverage?

I should start a separate market excluding 'obstruction of justice' because the Justice Department uses that as a catch-all for actions after the fact if the want to prosecute regardless.

predicted NO

@TANSTAAFL He was released on personal recognizance bail. His parents didn't have to put up anything.

predicted NO

@TANSTAAFL