Resolution criteria

Bloomberg published transcripts of phone calls between Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov (October 14) and between Ushakov and Kremlin economic advisor Kirill Dmitriev (October 29). The market resolves based on credible reporting identifying the source of these leaks. Resolution will reference investigative journalism, official statements, or documented evidence establishing who provided the recordings to Bloomberg or other media outlets. If no definitive source is publicly identified, the market may resolve to "Other" or remain unresolved pending further disclosure.
This market resolves once the source is known beyond reasonable doubt.

Background

The calls showed Witkoff appearing to favor the Russian side and proposing how Putin should approach Trump, including suggesting Putin congratulate Trump on the Gaza peace deal before Zelensky's White House visit. In the second call, Dmitriev and Ushakov discussed forwarding a maximalist Russian position on ending the Ukraine war that would be presented to U.S. interlocutors as their own plan. Dmitriev denied the Bloomberg publication, calling the transcripts fake, though Bloomberg released the leaked transcript on November 25, 2025.