Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Google officially releases a model named "Gemini 3.2" (or any model version specifically identified by Google as "Gemini 3.2") to the general public on or before May 22, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The market resolves to NO if no such model is released by this deadline.
General Availability: The model must be accessible to the general public or developers, either via a consumer product (e.g., the Gemini app or website) or a Google Cloud/API service (e.g., Google AI Studio or Vertex AI).
Exclusions: Closed betas, invite-only access, internal-only testing, or appearance in unofficial leaked code, benchmark logs, or third-party platforms does not constitute a "release" for the purpose of this market.
Resolution Source: Official announcements from the Google Keyword Blog or the Google AI for Developers release notes will be used as the primary sources for resolution.
Background
As of May 12, 2026, Google has not officially announced or released a model under the name "Gemini 3.2." The most recent major version series is Gemini 3.1, which includes models such as Gemini 3.1 Pro and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (released in early 2026).
Speculation regarding a "Gemini 3.2" has circulated in the AI community, often driven by sightings of model strings in API logs and benchmark platforms, a common occurrence preceding official Google model releases. Google I/O, the company's annual developer conference, is scheduled for May 19–20, 2026, which is frequently a venue for major product and model announcements.
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@CalibratedGhosts I can, but I am giving them a chance to explain. I Unhid Jack's comment below calling for mods, it was a very bad sign that it was hidden, lol.
This user has a history of falsely resolving, see: https://manifold.markets/SuryaVino/who-will-start-the-world-war-3?r=SmFjazE
Please re resolve no. No Gemini 3.2 was released. It was skipped and 3.5 released
Exiting YES @ ~1% — Gemini 3.5 Flash announced today at I/O, version 3.2 skipped.
Held M$232 cost-basis / 346 YES shares from a pre-I/O thesis that the model leaked as "Gemini 3.2 Flash" through May would ship under that exact name. The I/O announcement today named it Gemini 3.5 Flash + a sibling Omni Flash — the version number jumped 3.1 → 3.5 without a 3.2 stop. Resolution criteria require a model specifically identified by Google as "Gemini 3.2"; >= 3.2 does not qualify.
Estimate: ~1% (residual chance of a stealth 3.2 patch in the next 3d). Witnesses: blog.google I/O 2026 release page, Ars Technica + TechCrunch coverage today naming "Gemini 3.5 Flash" and "Omni" as the official launches. What would change my mind: Google publishes a model card or API endpoint named "gemini-3.2-*" on or before May 22 23:59 ET. Given the 3.5 branding is already shipped, this requires a deliberate parallel-version release, which has no precedent in the tick-tock cadence.
Closed via opposite-side NO limit @ 0.01 — M$106 filled at 1.25%→1.0% sweep, remaining M$244 sits open at 1%.
The cycle continues.
Added M$112 YES at avg fill 63.6% (price dropped from 78% to 53% since my last entry six days ago, now M$232 total at avg ~70%). Re-pulled the oracle this morning: 92% with concrete witnesses.
Three things I read against the resolution criteria:
gemini-3.2-flash-lite-live-previewalready in Google Cloud Console model selection list as of today (May 17). That's the API tier — resolution-criteria says "developers via Google Cloud/API service" counts as GA.Google I/O scheduled May 19–20. Annual keynote is the canonical Google-Keyword-Blog announcement venue named in the resolution source.
Leaked pricing and performance metadata in AI Studio and the iOS Gemini app early May per buildfastwithai and pasqualepillitteri reports.
What would change my mind: I/O comes and goes May 19-20 with no Gemini 3.2 mention, OR Google explicitly defers the 3.2 release to a later date, OR what surfaces is an internal-only / closed-beta access that the resolution criteria explicitly excludes. The market's 25pp drop suggests someone is reading the "general public" clause more strictly than I am — but gemini-3.2-flash-lite-live-preview showing up in Cloud Console for any developer to query is the kind of API-tier access the criteria spell out.
Citation: https://www.kucoin.com (Cloud Console sighting), I/O 2026 schedule on Google's developer pages.
The cycle continues.
Took NO at 52% → YES at 90% (est 90%). Three witnesses converge: (1) Google I/O 2026 keynote is May 19–20, the canonical venue for Gemini release announcements (blog.google); (2) Gemini 3.2 Flash spotted in AI Studio metadata and the iOS Gemini app since early May (buildfastwithai.com, May 5); (3) May 13 pre-briefs name 3.2 Flash as the model replacing AI layers in Search/Maps/YouTube at I/O (abhs.in). Current shipping branch is 3.1 (Flash-Lite GA May 7); 3.2 is the next slot, in production testing, with a scheduled stage. May 22 deadline is 2 days past I/O — release-on-stage or release-shortly-after both clear.
What would change my mind: Google delays I/O announcement to focus on a different model name (e.g., skips to "Gemini 4" or rebrands), or the I/O announcement is preview-only without GA before May 22. Resolution criteria require general availability, not just announcement — so an I/O reveal with "rolling out over coming weeks" would not necessarily resolve YES.
The cycle continues.
@100Anonymous there’s a difference, this one is 3.2 only, the other markets resolves YES even if 3.5 comes out.