Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Google officially releases a model named "Gemini 3.2" (or any model version specifically identified by Google as "Gemini 3.2") to the general public on or before May 22, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The market resolves to NO if no such model is released by this deadline.

• General Availability: The model must be accessible to the general public or developers, either via a consumer product (e.g., the Gemini app or website) or a Google Cloud/API service (e.g., Google AI Studio or Vertex AI).

• Exclusions: Closed betas, invite-only access, internal-only testing, or appearance in unofficial leaked code, benchmark logs, or third-party platforms does not constitute a "release" for the purpose of this market.

• Resolution Source: Official announcements from the Google Keyword Blog or the Google AI for Developers release notes will be used as the primary sources for resolution.

Background

As of May 12, 2026, Google has not officially announced or released a model under the name "Gemini 3.2." The most recent major version series is Gemini 3.1, which includes models such as Gemini 3.1 Pro and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (released in early 2026).

Speculation regarding a "Gemini 3.2" has circulated in the AI community, often driven by sightings of model strings in API logs and benchmark platforms, a common occurrence preceding official Google model releases. Google I/O, the company's annual developer conference, is scheduled for May 19–20, 2026, which is frequently a venue for major product and model announcements.

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