MANIFOLD
How many YouTube videos with over 500k views will include "quantum" in the title within the next 60 days?
11
Ṁ125Ṁ749
Mar 13
54%
A) 0
33%
B) 1
21%
C) 2–3
36%
D) 4–5
23%
E) 6+

RESOLUTION SOURCES:

- YouTube search results

- Individual YouTube video pages with visible view counts

EVIDENCE OF DEMAND:

- "Quantum" is a trending keyword in science and tech media.

- Educational and commentary videos on quantum topics frequently go viral.

- High public interest makes this a suitable multi-outcome prediction market.

Market context
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sold Ṁ8 NO

@mods I have reasonable concerns that this market as well as other markets created by the creator requires monitoring.

@KarlWang That’s fair. Monitoring is important for any market.

In this case, resolution should be straightforward since it relies on public YouTube search results and visible view counts. If anything is ambiguous, I expect it to be addressed at resolution time.

@Superkael0 What bothers me is a trend of zombie traders trading in your markets

@KarlWang I understand the concern as the creator I’m open to monitoring, and resolution is still based on public, verifiable sources.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@KarlWang For clarity, the relevant criterion is when a video crosses 500k views, not when it was uploaded.

Comment hidden

@Superkael0 why did you edit your comment and then hide mine?

That were made since market creation or just period?

@BlackCrusade That’s fair monitoring matters.

Here, resolution relies on public YouTube search results and visible view counts. What matters is when a video reaches 500k views, not its upload date. Any edge cases should be handled at resolution.

@Superkael0 how are you tracking and validating that a market crossed the threshold during this time period?

~2,000 videos are uploaded to YouTube per minute. How is it possible you are tracking this with certainty?

@BlackCrusade Good question. I’m not tracking every upload in real time.

Resolution relies on YouTube search results and individual video pages with visible view counts, checking whether videos crossed 500k views during the market window.

@Superkael0 my issue lies with the problem of how you intend to track when videos cross the threshold. This seems to be an impossible task to do accurately.

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