Using the closing price on Jan 1st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ1,473 | |
2 | Ṁ152 | |
3 | Ṁ129 | |
4 | Ṁ112 | |
5 | Ṁ94 |
According to the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, it can be seen that the current employment situation in the U.S. is not as good as expected. Means that the Fed will be under pressure to raise interest rates further, and will not further choose to raise interest rates in December. In addition, higher excessive Treasury yields will also hit the stock market, and will also make the economy suffer. Therefore there is reason to believe that the ten-year Treasury yield, will not exceed 5% at the end of the year.
Reference: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
US Treasury Yield Outlook: What Everyone in Markets Should Be Watching (businessinsider.com)
I believe yes it will, since most "investors seem skittish about rising U.S. government debt", they're are going to demand more return if the government won't seem to pay the debt in future. Therefore, with that being said, it will for sure impact inflation even more and mortgage, student loan, auto loan and such will have an interest increasement.
For example, looking at student loan, interest rates would potentially rise even more which would create more uncertainty of people going to school.