Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040
closes 2040

A former scientist, staff, government official, or related background, who had Chinese citizenship at the time, will speak publicly in the US, UK, or EU about previously non public and significant information about the situation there related to the COVID or biosafety.

This is typically something the CCP opposes (although if they weren't around that wouldn't happen.) The claim may still become true in that case. If the person felt travels in and out of CCP controlled areas that pushed against the claim being true since the CCP wouldn't allow a true defector that freedom.

An anonymous report or intelligence reports, official or leaked, aren't enough. It has to be a individual named person speaking out somehow, and they have to be obviously not in foreign custody (hence the location requirement).

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Catnee bets again in Sep 2023
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
27% chance
Will Sneako experience twink death before 09/22/2033
ZacharyOlson avatarZachary Olson
66% chance
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
GG avatarGG
15% chance
"Kenough" is a popular costume on Halloween 2023
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
77% chance
Head of state says "dildo" in public before 2030
HarrisonLucas avatarHarrison Lucas
52% chance
There will be a major morality scandal around a top English language pingpong announcer before 2041
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
40% chance
Cloned historical figure born before 2036
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
26% chance
Japan has a female prime minister before 2040
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
24% chance
Miles Routledge aka Lord Miles is alive in 2030
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
41% chance
Birth decade of first bicentenarian
Female Head of Mossad before 2028
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
32% chance
Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030
HarrisonLucas avatarHarrison Lucas
21% chance
Stanford Medical School Graduation Ceremony includes Land acknowledgement, 2029
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
52% chance
Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
28% chance
Magnus Carlsen runs for public office before 2045
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
24% chance
Number of murders in Chicago declines in 2023 YoY
HarrisonLucas avatarHarrison Lucas
78% chance
Timothy Haugh is confirmed as head of NSA by the end of 2023
Odoacre avatarOdoacre
29% chance
Will there be a remake of Groundhog Day before July 2035
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
51% chance
David Miscavige sentenced to jail time before 2031
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
34% chance
Chess Streamer relationships+ before 2035
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
30% chance