Will any top 10 YES holder on LK-99 bail out before end of September?
closes Oct 2

One of the top 10 current YES holders (see list below) completely sells out and is out of the main LK-99 market or is a NO holder in it any moment through midnight CA time Sep 30 2023

The main market: Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?8%‌

If you think this has happened, please post in comments and I'll review it. If the situation has changed by the time I check, we can still reconstruct the past holdings, and we'll go by that.

If person is banned or quits or blocks me or anyone it's irrelevant. They have to sell.

If they just transfer holdings to an alt or something it doesn't count although that would require specific proof.

If they flip to NO on this market, but have hedged it by going very YES on other, related markets, it's unfortunate, but that will still count as bailing out. That way at least it's easy to judge; trying to asses whether someone has truly changed heart, and has gone net NO from YES across all related markets would be too hard.

If the main LK-99 market resolves NO before due date, then that is considered a failure for the YES holders, and this market would resolve YES. i.e. both situations resolve to: "YES holders give up hope". If the main is YES, then they wouldn't have bailed either.

The current top ten this market is about and their holdings and activity rate:

Catnee Ṁ1,198,146 Last Active Aug 24

RB Ṁ289,044 Active today

Alexandros Marinos Ṁ260,318 Active Aug 31

Zero Big Ṁ249,275 Active Aug 31

Sanghyeon Seo Ṁ200,000 Active Today

David Kochanov Ṁ95,578 Active Today

Lucas Vasconcelos Ṁ89,424 Active Today

Ryan Compton Ṁ75,758 Active 1 month ago

Jonny5 Ṁ72,386 Active 1 month ago

James Robinson Ṁ55,869 Active 1 month ago

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will LK99 succeed in reappearing in the month of September?
saruan avatarsaruan
3% chance
Will LK-99 be greater than 100?
JackIngram avatarJack Ingram
69% chance
What is LK-99 at room temperature and ambient pressure? [READ DESCRIPTION!]
Will APL Materials publish the research on LK-99 ?
Odoacre avatarOdoacre
31% chance
Will a sample of LK-99 be auctioned on Ebay in 2023?
What will be the consensus on LK-99?
Is the fully floating LK-99 video CGI or deceitfully edited?
nanob0nus avatarnanob0nus
57% chance
Is @Iris_IGB attempting to produce and disseminate information about LK-99/Copper Doped Lead Apatite in good faith?
Who will demonstrate a working sample of LK-99 First? ( @iris_IGB, @andrewmccalip)
Will either @Mira or @chrisjbillington default on their LK-99 shares?
Mira avatarMira 🍎
4% chance
Will something distinct to LK-99 achieve greater virality on Manifolds Markets before 2025?
wilkess avatarDavid Wilkes
80% chance
Does LK-99 float?
Soren avatarSoren
4% chance
Will any of the LK-99 researchers face criminal charges filed this year?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
8% chance
Will twitter user @iris_IGB produce a working sample of LK-99?
slawbunnies avatarSlawbunnies
4% chance
Does LK-99 demonstrate "levitation" when immersed in a high density liquid?
HastingsGreer avatarHastings Greer
20% chance
Conditional on LK-99 replicating, is the latest video of LK-99 exhibiting flux pinning real?
nanob0nus avatarnanob0nus
84% chance
Will pure LK-99 turn out to be significantly toxic to humans?
Sodra avatarSodra
12% chance
Will @andrewmccalip demonstrate a working sample of LK-99?
slawbunnies avatarSlawbunnies
2% chance
Will Scott Aaronson write a strongly positive review of the LK-99 research this year?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
5% chance
If LK-99 is NOT a RTAP SC, will it seem very likely the original authors knowingly committed fraud?
Soren avatarSoren
10% chance
Sort by:
StrayClimb avatar
Calvinballpredicts YES

Pretty remarkable that nearly the entire set of top YES holders is relatively inactive. The top 10 NO holders are all active today, with multiple active more recently than even 1m ago,

StrayClimb avatar
Calvinballpredicts YES

Update since start of this bet:


1,198k => No change, Active 27d ago


289k => 106k Active Sep 7

Alexandros Marinos

260k => No change Active Aug 31

Zero Big

249k => 362k Active Sep 7

Sanghyeon Seo

200k => 300k Active Today

David Kochanov

96k => 112k Active Today

Lucas Vasconcelos

89k => 92k Active Sep 11

Ryan Compton

76k => No change Active July 31


72k Active => No change Active July 31

James Robinson

56k Active => No change Active Aug 2

StrayClimb avatar
Calvinballpredicts YES

As of last night, no more action since RB's sell.

I wonder if this market in particular has people sticking to their guns more. It's pretty surprising people aren't giving up.

Shump avatar

If anyone's curious, the reason this market jumped appears to be that RB sold about half of their shares.

StrayClimb avatar
Calvinballpredicts NO

Also please comment or vote for who is most likely to bail