Will any top 10 YES holder on LK-99 bail out before end of September?
Mini
33
6.6k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

One of the top 10 current YES holders (see list below) completely sells out and is out of the main LK-99 market or is a NO holder in it any moment through midnight CA time Sep 30 2023

The main market: Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?8%‌

If you think this has happened, please post in comments and I'll review it. If the situation has changed by the time I check, we can still reconstruct the past holdings, and we'll go by that.

If person is banned or quits or blocks me or anyone it's irrelevant. They have to sell.

If they just transfer holdings to an alt or something it doesn't count although that would require specific proof.

If they flip to NO on this market, but have hedged it by going very YES on other, related markets, it's unfortunate, but that will still count as bailing out. That way at least it's easy to judge; trying to asses whether someone has truly changed heart, and has gone net NO from YES across all related markets would be too hard.

If the main LK-99 market resolves NO before due date, then that is considered a failure for the YES holders, and this market would resolve YES. i.e. both situations resolve to: "YES holders give up hope". If the main is YES, then they wouldn't have bailed either.

The current top ten this market is about and their holdings and activity rate:

Catnee Ṁ1,198,146 Last Active Aug 24

RB Ṁ289,044 Active today

Alexandros Marinos Ṁ260,318 Active Aug 31

Zero Big Ṁ249,275 Active Aug 31

Sanghyeon Seo Ṁ200,000 Active Today

David Kochanov Ṁ95,578 Active Today

Lucas Vasconcelos Ṁ89,424 Active Today

Ryan Compton Ṁ75,758 Active 1 month ago

Jonny5 Ṁ72,386 Active 1 month ago

James Robinson Ṁ55,869 Active 1 month ago

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predicted YES

@Dennis5a87 thanks. Will update in 7 hours when I get online.

predicted YES

Pretty remarkable that nearly the entire set of top YES holders is relatively inactive. The top 10 NO holders are all active today, with multiple active more recently than even 1m ago,

predicted YES

Update since start of this bet:

Catnee

1,198k => No change, Active 27d ago

RB

289k => 106k Active Sep 7

Alexandros Marinos

260k => No change Active Aug 31

Zero Big

249k => 362k Active Sep 7

Sanghyeon Seo

200k => 300k Active Today

David Kochanov

96k => 112k Active Today

Lucas Vasconcelos

89k => 92k Active Sep 11

Ryan Compton

76k => No change Active July 31

Jonny5

72k Active => No change Active July 31

James Robinson

56k Active => No change Active Aug 2

predicted YES

As of last night, no more action since RB's sell.

I wonder if this market in particular has people sticking to their guns more. It's pretty surprising people aren't giving up.

If anyone's curious, the reason this market jumped appears to be that RB sold about half of their shares.

predicted NO

Also please comment or vote for who is most likely to bail