True if the president self-acknowledges his/her religion to be Hinduism.
Rumors don't count.
If he/she grew up Hindu but fell away or became non practicing, but haven't taken on another religion, it counts as Hindu.
1,000
3.00Seems over-valued. Only ~1% of the US population is Hindu, and most of those are immigrants (and thus not eligible to run for President). Naively, after 2024 election, there's only 4 more elections in the timeframe, and if they were all independent (they're not, due to incumbency), then that would imply (1 - 0.99^4) = 4%. Then we have to consider the 2024 election, where Vivek is a candidate. But his chances of winning (from other markets) seems to be only a percent or two. So this makes me think it's ~5%. Maybe it should be a bit higher (or lower) due to other factors, but I doubt it should be double that or more.
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench
@snigdhar0y Manifold market for this here: https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/the-us-president-is-a-hindu-by-2042?r=U3RyYXlDbGltYg