New CEO at two of 13 top companies by April 1 2025
Elon musk•Business
13
33
Ṁ270
2025
74%
chance

There will be a new CEO in place in at least two of these companies by April 1 2025.

  • Facebook (Meta)

  • Google (Alphabet)

  • Microsoft

  • Amazon

  • IBM

  • NVidia

  • Tesla

  • Netflix

  • Snapchat

  • Uber

  • Airbnb

  • Dropbox

  • LinkedIn

Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Okay, the new multiple choice markets make this kind of market way better!

‌/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw-66fee6b25cc1

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-one-of-these-19-c

bought Ṁ16 of NO
import numpy as np

probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)

res = []
for _ in range(300000):
    sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 2
    res.append(sample)
np.mean(res) # 0.56
bought Ṁ35 of YES

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vzgzbLqGEuiA5EougVrxB2AJe4RvIFXwdFluiik8nVs/edit

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