There will be a new CEO in place in at least two of these companies by April 1 2025.
Facebook (Meta)
Google (Alphabet)
Microsoft
Amazon
IBM
NVidia
Tesla
Netflix
Snapchat
Uber
Airbnb
Dropbox
LinkedIn
Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.
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import numpy as np
probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)
res = []
for _ in range(300000):
sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 2
res.append(sample)
np.mean(res) # 0.56
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