New CEO at two of 13 top companies by April 1 2025

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resolved May 29

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There will be a new CEO in place in at least two of these companies by April 1 2025.

Facebook (Meta)
Google (Alphabet)
Microsoft
Amazon
IBM
NVidia
Tesla
Netflix
Snapchat
Uber
Airbnb
Dropbox
LinkedIn

Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.

Market context

Elon musk

Business

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Okay, the new multiple choice markets make this kind of market way better!

‌/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw-66fee6b25cc1

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-three-of-these-tw

/Ernie/ceo-tontine-which-one-of-these-19-c

import numpy as np

probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)

res = []
for _ in range(300000):
    sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 2
    res.append(sample)
np.mean(res) # 0.56