New CEO at two of 13 top companies by April 1 2025
11
closes 2025
74%
chance

There will be a new CEO in place in at least two of these companies by April 1 2025.

• Microsoft

• Amazon

• IBM

• NVidia

• Tesla

• Netflix

• Snapchat

• Uber

• Airbnb

• Dropbox

Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.

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Noa Nabeshimabought Ṁ16 of NO
``````import numpy as np

probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)

res = []
for _ in range(300000):
sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 2
res.append(sample)
np.mean(res) # 0.56``````

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