Based on recent footage showing what seems to be a destroyed camp, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has declared that it was due to an attack by Russian forces, which could lead to the dissolution of their "cooperation". Regardless of the outcome of the immediate media campaign and potential internal conflict, will Wagner Group and Russia eventually re-establish friendly ties and resume the invasion of Ukraine together by the end of 2023?

This market makes no distinction between whether Wagner is a de facto Russian government organization or not. An assumption this market is making is that there is a possibility of conflict between the two, even if they're otherwise one-and-the-same, but whether conflict actually arises or not doesn't affect the resolution of this market.

Perhaps the recent news is a ruse to squash the pretty well-substantiated rumors that Wagner Group is simply another arm of Russia's military. Or it's a feint to allow a coordinated surprise push. I'm sure most of us are hoping it devolves into a destabilization of Russia's invasion, but even if it does will it be a lasting split or will they make peace with each other in favor of resuming their campaign against Ukraine?

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Update to include some clarifications that you might find useful:

• This is about the organization, not the individuals. Former-Wagner troops dont count, but Wagner-branded units do.

• We're mostly looking for active deployment into battlefields. Sending them near the front to cool their heels and play CoD wouldn't satisfy.

• If there exists conflict between Wagner forces and Russian forces in the same areas of deployment (broken and uncoordinated chain of command, squabbles about supply, or even exchange of fire, etc.), this won't resolve YES until that's seemingly resolved