Will Wagner PMC (the org) resume operations alongside Russia in 2023?
2.2k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Based on recent footage showing what seems to be a destroyed camp, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has declared that it was due to an attack by Russian forces, which could lead to the dissolution of their "cooperation". Regardless of the outcome of the immediate media campaign and potential internal conflict, will Wagner Group and Russia eventually re-establish friendly ties and resume the invasion of Ukraine together by the end of 2023?

This market makes no distinction between whether Wagner is a de facto Russian government organization or not. An assumption this market is making is that there is a possibility of conflict between the two, even if they're otherwise one-and-the-same, but whether conflict actually arises or not doesn't affect the resolution of this market.

Perhaps the recent news is a ruse to squash the pretty well-substantiated rumors that Wagner Group is simply another arm of Russia's military. Or it's a feint to allow a coordinated surprise push. I'm sure most of us are hoping it devolves into a destabilization of Russia's invasion, but even if it does will it be a lasting split or will they make peace with each other in favor of resuming their campaign against Ukraine?

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Update to include some clarifications that you might find useful:

  • This is about the organization, not the individuals. Former-Wagner troops dont count, but Wagner-branded units do.

  • We're mostly looking for active deployment into battlefields. Sending them near the front to cool their heels and play CoD wouldn't satisfy.

  • If there exists conflict between Wagner forces and Russian forces in the same areas of deployment (broken and uncoordinated chain of command, squabbles about supply, or even exchange of fire, etc.), this won't resolve YES until that's seemingly resolved

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

Russian sources reported that former Wagner personnel have created their own “Kamerton” detachment subordinated under Akhmat Spetsnaz forces that will soon deploy to an unspecified frontline in Ukraine.[19]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-2-2023

If true this would resolve yes I assume.

@AlexbGoode nope! this is about the org, not the individuals who have been getting recruited a bunch. I need to put this in the title somehow...

predicted YES

@Stralor you say in the description Wagner branded units count. Kamerton is clearly Wagner branded

bought Ṁ100 NO from 29% to 27%

@AlexbGoode if true, I agree. I'm not convinced it's Wagner branded, though. Is Kamerton a Wagner term?

predicted NO

From a quick research: "Kamerton" is a unit created by former Wagner members as a part of chechen "Akhmat" special forces

bought Ṁ60 NO from 30% to 29%
predicted NO

Will this count as Wagner Group if people are signing contracts with Ministry of Defence, but then fight in a battalion or something that is:

  • called "Wagner",

  • has former Wagner members in management,

  • inherits some of the corporate structure from the former Wagner organisation such as recruitment centres?

@roma Nope! this question is about the org

bought Ṁ100 NO from 21% to 20%
predicted NO

@Stralor Cool, seems like this is how it may play out. So I wanted to make sure because it's hard to define what "Wagner Group" was before, as it couldn't legally exist as a PMC. So this new structure may be similar to whatever it was, with an important difference of members signing contracts with Ministry of Defence.

bought Ṁ46 of NO

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1709981678158962783

Putin: “There are no private military companies in Russia, because there are no laws on this matter, PMCs are a journalistic name” 😂

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Putin instructed the former PMC Wagner chief of staff Andrei Troshev to deal with the so-called 'formation of volunteer units'. He said that these units will perform combat operations in the 'special military zone' in Ukraine.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1707639189544575454?s=46&t=WKRyFNaUStQaXCTlWvKsEA

bought Ṁ100 of NO

There are rumors that Wagner is fighting again near Bakhmut, but AFAIK these are former Wagner members who now joined official army forces.

sold Ṁ18 of YES

@roma how did they determine that these were ex-wagner fighters vs official army forces?

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING I don't think there's strong evidence either way at this point. But according to this article, for example, Ukraine official says Wagner no longer exist.

I wrote the original comment just to make sure market doesn't resolve based on these reports without considering the possibility that these people are called "Wagner" only informally as they used to be members of the group.

@roma yep, and I appreciate it. I'm still watching in the wings for clear evidence of deployment of Wagner to a battlefield.

@Stralor it does look more and more likely, but it's also acknowledged in the report that we're not there yet

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@roma that's fair. clearer picture needed. i can accept that

sold Ṁ272 of YES

yeah, I don't think this should resolve the market. right now it seems most likely that they are dispersed within regular units as opposed to being deployed as full Wagner units like previously in the war

predicted YES

@Stralor can we get some clarification? what level of wagner re-involvement in ukraine is necessary to resolve yes?

@SemioticRivalry sure! I haven't been tracking the news on this. but if Wagner forces are deployed against Ukrainian ones that seems enough to count, unless it's clear that there's friction and noncooperation with other Russian forces.

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