Based on recent footage showing what seems to be a destroyed camp, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has declared that it was due to an attack by Russian forces, which could lead to the dissolution of their "cooperation". Regardless of the outcome of the immediate media campaign and potential internal conflict, will Wagner Group and Russia eventually re-establish friendly ties and resume the invasion of Ukraine together by the end of 2023?
This market makes no distinction between whether Wagner is a de facto Russian government organization or not. An assumption this market is making is that there is a possibility of conflict between the two, even if they're otherwise one-and-the-same, but whether conflict actually arises or not doesn't affect the resolution of this market.
Perhaps the recent news is a ruse to squash the pretty well-substantiated rumors that Wagner Group is simply another arm of Russia's military. Or it's a feint to allow a coordinated surprise push. I'm sure most of us are hoping it devolves into a destabilization of Russia's invasion, but even if it does will it be a lasting split or will they make peace with each other in favor of resuming their campaign against Ukraine?
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@Stralor can we get some clarification? what level of wagner re-involvement in ukraine is necessary to resolve yes?
@SemioticRivalry sure! I haven't been tracking the news on this. but if Wagner forces are deployed against Ukrainian ones that seems enough to count, unless it's clear that there's friction and noncooperation with other Russian forces.
Wagner mercenaries in Belarus move closer to the Polish border, Poland's prime minister says | AP News
wagner + Belarus vs Poland + NATO
So how does this resolve if the Wagner group itself no longer operates with Russia but most former Wagner fighters sign contracts with the Russian military?
@SemioticRivalry Good question. To me that resolves NO (or more correctly, does not satisfy the conditions for YES), as this is about the organization, not its parts. In the opposite scenario, where Wagner becomes formally absorbed into the Russian military but most Wagner fighters and leaders leave, this would resolve YES.
@Stralor I'm thinking resolve no. Contract offered, but rejected
- Wagner head Prigozhin rejected offer to join Russia's army - Putin - BBC News
- Wagner Group ‘simply doesn’t exist’ as a legal entity, Vladimir Putin says - National | Globalnews.ca
@higherLEVELING tempting but I don't think I'll resolve NO early on Putin's word when the winds might change again next week and it would resolve YES, though I get that's highly unlikely. I intend to hold out on a NO resolution until close unless it's basically international consensus that Wagner is totally gone and can't come back
@Stralor ohok, but lets say u were to resolve it today. it would resolve no, right?
Things are moving fast in this news beat. I think it's best if I wait for the dust to settle before any potential YES resolution, even if it looks like one might be likely at the moment.
@Stralor Yeah I personally wouldn't resolve YES until there is credible media reporting of Wagner troops fighting in Ukraine
As more news comes out, I'm finding it more credible that this internal conflict really is going down. But still, there's always the possibility that one side "wins" the conflict, perhaps deposing the other's leader, and then the two go back to working together under new management. Thoughts?
@Stralor That seems like a possibility. Up to you how the market resolves in that case.
