Will the correct answer get 50% or more in my Two Truths and a Lie market?

Manifold Users•Fun•Predictions on Predictions

232

Ṁ334

Ṁ170

resolved Jun 25

Resolved

YES

ALL

YES if bettors in the market guess any answer to 50% or higher in the UI and that answer ends up being the correct one.

NO if all answers close at 49% or lower, or if the correct answer is not the answer sitting at 50%+ when it resolves.

The market in question:

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ38
2		Ṁ18
3		Ṁ11
4		Ṁ4

4 Comments

9 Holders

15 Trades

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predicted NO

For awhile the explosives answer was in the lead, and in the last few minutes someone pushed the CPR answer to 50%. Good job on their part, because this market now resolves YES!

predicted NO

@Stralor very surprised, I definitely felt this had a small chance of happening. :)

predicted NO

oops I had limit orders on this market. my position is not indicative of any opinion for or against the linked market's status.

likewise, me selling the shares I'm now holding or continuing to buy more in an order may send signals for or against, so I have canceled the remaining order and will not make any further trades to avoid influencing the results.

predicted NO

@Stralor I guess most people aren't worried about this. I have insider info, Manifold likes it when people trade based on that, and it might even give you useful clues. I think in this case it just feels too icky for me to trade because I don't only have an edge here: I'm the market's sole info source, arbiter of it, and the market is closing too soon for everyone else to play around such signaling.