Which market will be the doom of @BTE's account?
20
372
960
resolved Feb 21
Resolved
YES
Hamas command center under al-Shiva hospital?
Resolved
NO
NONE - BTE's account will survive in the positive until 2025
Resolved
NO
Will Google Search include a chatbot at the end of 2023
Resolved
NO
When will Trump serve time
Resolved
NO
Will Google Search include a chatbot at the end of November 2023
Resolved
NO
Will I be a part of a team that launches a competitor to Manifold by the end of 2023
Resolved
NO
Will BTE's secret plan work
Resolved
NO
Will the Wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?

@BTE is overleveraged! 😅

I posit that one resolution that goes awry for him could spell his doom and he could be buried with negative balance and negative networth with little recourse except to get unofficial loans, buy significant amounts of mana, or get rescued by someone generous.

This resolves to the first market after this one's creation date (Nov 9, '23) that causes him to go negative in networth and balance at the same time, for any amount of time, even if he doesn't end up being doomed after all.

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Hamas command center under al-Shiva hospital?
bought Ṁ35 Hamas command center... YES

this resolves YES

@BTE I guess I don’t really understand how this market works. As I commented below, you were already very briefly negative in both balance and net worth before your losses on the Al Shifa market which seems to imply that it was not the first market to cause this.

@Arky ah I missed that, sorry arky. tough to know how to figure out what market that would be. I'll resolve to al-shiva, but I'll offset your losses if you have any

Will the Wagner group still exist by the end of 2023?

I did lose this market but I am up 50k since then so idk how this should resolve.

@BTE yeah I mean your account hasn't died died but if that market threw you in the double negs then it counts for this one

Will Google Search include a chatbot at the end of 2023

One more no

Will Google Search include a chatbot at the end of November 2023

Also no

Will I be a part of a team that launches a competitor to Manifold by the end of 2023

This can resolve NO

bought Ṁ200 of NONE - BTE's account... NO

It looks like this has already happened? BTE currently has a negative net worth and balance.

@Arky It looks like the first time this happened was (very briefly) on December 9th, but I have no idea how you would tell which market caused that to happen. They lost a lot on both the Wagner and Trump markets.

Going great...

Will nothing ever happen market but make it about @BTE

Wait how did he get so much leverage? I think he must have donated his mana. But it's really weird that Manifold allows you to keep so much in loans when you withdraw all your mana. Seems exploitable

sold Ṁ5 of Will the Wagner grou... NO

@Shump Could it be that he’s created so many markets?

@NicoDelon He’s also deep in the red in profits.

I'm more confused about how he got so many loans after looking at his net worth graph. He never had more than 250k net worth

@Shump I see. I can’t pretend to really understand how loans are calculated but if he keeps buying mana and investing it, isn’t he supposed to get lots of loans? The relatively low net worth is explained by his huge losses. No?