In the first few minutes, I'll set up a modest amount of limit orders. After that, I'm at your mercy; I won't trade again in this market. I also won't cancel my orders once they're locked in.
Resolves YES when the market closes if any of my limit orders are still standing on the limit order page, no matter how negligible the remaining amount is.
Resolves NO when the market closes if my limit orders on it have all been fully bought up.
Doesn't resolve early.
Note: if somehow any of my orders get forcibly cancelled due to lack of funds, I'll be sure to re-order what was missing as soon as I can.
1,000
3.00@FlorisvanDoorn But was it Nickten or Acceleration bot that bought out the vital limit order? (or do we blame you for Acceleration Bot's actions?)
@ChristopherRandles ahaha I would have loved if almost all non-bot users walked away with a profit, alas
@FlorisvanDoorn 5 trades earlier
AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 95% 🤖4h
Floris van Doorn bought Ṁ500 YES from 92% to 94% 4h
I see 4 hours earlier compared to Nickten's 3 hours earlier. But maybe that didn't clear it?
@ChristopherRandles I'm quite sure that Acceleration Bot made a limit order at 95%, but only put in M100, which wasn't enough to move the market value from 94% to 95%. So even though 95% is displayed there, I'm quite sure the market never got above 94% during that bet.
@Stralor Buying up to the last limit order seems like the rational thing to do. On the other hand, now the market is me vs you lol
@SavioMak ahaha yeah I kinda figured someone else would come in to either back you up or try to push for NO now that it's within shooting range. You're in a good position if the market stays stable, though I doubt it will when there's more than a week to close
@Stralor hmm, looking at it again with Dan having entered the market and put in another blocking order at 94%, it seems it would cost about as much as is in the market now to buy out the 95%, and you'd get a fair chunk of that back as profit (or at least offset) for your YES shares, so you're in a really good position imo!
@Stralor There are a couple of cancelled orders. These were cancelled about 10 minutes before your comment 13 June 21:33:26. Can we be sure you won't reinstate these at the last second? Trying to work out if you have a trick up your sleeve, otherwise why do this (seemingly certain 155 mana trading loss) ?
@ChristopherRandles I won't be reinstating those canceled orders; those were me deciding the splay before I locked in. What was in the comment 3 days ago is what counts :)
I know it's weird that I kinda prefer designing interesting dynamics even if they might cause me to lose over chasing profits at all costs. So there are no tricks other than thoughtful initial design, I've even created the group "At Your Mercy" for exactly this purpose.
I don't have alts, I haven't made any side deals (though admittedly I thought about it), and I have no plans other than to watch and enjoy.
@Stralor and I can't say what the ultimate strategy might be for you. ideally it's a tough decision! savio got the early prime position of being able to build YES against my NO and then protect it or sell at some point. for everyone else, maybe it's worthwhile to eat into that barrier at 94% for YES profit if you trust it won't break, maybe it's worthwhile to peck at it and get people to turn NO, or maybe you buy NO and hope someone throws down and flips it for you. idk!