Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.

We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they're not given a hand.

Here's how it works:

1. This question is the buy-in for the hand. The bettors with the top 7 largest positions at close (YES or NO) get a personal hand. Bots and alts are allowed, but I'll need a way to contact you to give you your hand, such as discord, and I'll need to be told if a bot-tagged account wants a hand ahead of time. If you're betting and don't want a hand, also let me know. Then this market will resolve PROB to the market's current value.

2. Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents! (Such bets have no bearing on if their hand advances¹)

3. Once everyone has their hand, I'll make a general question about "who will win" that will track the status of the game, and then rapid 1-day questions on each player in each of the four rounds of betting. (Multi-Binary questions were missing needed features in Hand 1, so we're doing many Binary questions this time instead 😅)

4. Each player must hold a certain amount of YES shares on their own Hand, Flop, Turn, and River questions to have a chance to advance to the next stage. This self-position is called their "wager".

5. The player with the 4th/3rd/2nd/1st highest wager in the round is called the Pivot Player (Hand/Flop/Turn/River). If the player who would be the Pivot doesn't have a positive wager, the role moves to the lowest-standing player who does.

6. Each player needs to wager ≥ 1/2 of the Pivot Player's wager to advance, otherwise they fold.

7. A player's questions will resolve NO if they fold, NO if they lose, and YES if they win. They can also resolve PROB if the end of the game is a split (75% for a two-way split, 66% for a three-way, 50% if it's somehow a four-way).

8. If two or more players stick it out to the end I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner, and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.

9. If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who held the highest YES wager on the previous round.

As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for mismatched bets by players, so feel free to jump in even if you're intimidated by a whale in the water! They can do their thing, profit by playing market dynamics, and you can still come out on top :) Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy!

BUT WAIT, WE'RE NOT READY YET. PAT, WHERE IS THE 8TH PLAYER?!

Y'all, we're gonna have an AUDIENCE HAND this time around.

The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:

• is publicly visible

• doesn't have to buy in

• uses the net YES minus NO shares of all bettors in its question as its wager

• (¹ betting on this opponent can affect whether a player's hand folds or not, due to the advancement rules)

As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.

I'll place some limit orders on this particular question to help early buy-ins, but I plan to exit my position before close.

Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group for shared visibility.