Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.

We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they're not given a hand.

Here's how it works:

1. ( CHAOS ) This question is the buy-in for the hand. The bettors with the top 7 largest YES positions at close get a personal hand. Bots and alts are allowed, but I'll need a way to contact you to give you your hand, such as discord. Then this market will resolve NO. How much do you want it?

2. I may place limit orders and bets on the buy-in. Any profit I make here will become a prize for the winner at the end.

3. Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents!

4. Once the players are chosen, I'll make a general question about "who will win" that will track the status of the game, and then rapid (roughly 1 day) multi-choice questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River). I may close each of them at an unannounced time up to 4 hours early, but will try to do so when the betting isn't active and hot.

5. ( CHAOS ) Each player who is at 10%+ in the round question at close advances to the next, whether or not they even bet on themselves. We'll go by what it says in the UI.

6. If two or more players stick it out to the end I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner, and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.

7. All of the questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner (or to multiple equally if it's a split).

8. The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:

   • is publicly visible

   • doesn't have to buy in

As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for very mismatched bets by players, so feel free to jump in even if you're intimidated by a whale in the water! But this is CHAOS mode so, you know, careful out there and maybe bring a friend to back you up.

As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.

Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility.