Humanity survives a Great Filter
5
1kṀ912
3001
40%
chance

Do we reach the stars? Do we continue existing after facing off with A.I. or our nuclear age? Any one instance of true existential bottleneck followed by durable populations of humans beyond the solar system resolves this YES.

There is a real possibility that this is impossible to ever fully resolve. If it closes without resolving, please reopen.

Existential Risk
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

AI isnt a great filter. If it was, we wouldn't see civilizations in space, but we would see AIs.

@MaxE Maybe!

filled a Ṁ7 NO at 39% order

How do we recognize we’ve survived a bottleneck? If we settled another planet now, would that count as us surviving nuclear age?

@Tomasac1e I'd say the existential risk has to become actualized rather than theoretical. If we nuke the planet into an unlivable wasteland but still somehow survive, that seems like a clear bottleneck. Us simply having unused nukes does not.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy