It doesn't make any sense to bet on this (because none of us will be around to collect the winnings) but the current odds (78% YES) are insane. I think around 5 to 10% would be more reasonable.

@Andriamanitra youre right about betting on it of course. luckily we have loans if you use them, so you can sink a bit in and itll eventually trickle back to you. you can treat it like the stock markets that used to be popular by buying and selling, or as a simple thought experiment with only minor long term investment as belief signal.

Does the existential bottleneck have to be in the future? How does this resolve if the Great Filter is in the past already?

@nonnihil 🤔 I suppose by the time we have durably ensured indefinite survival of humankind and they look back, they're welcome to weigh whether we passed a Great Filter before this market was made, if we indeed make it that far.

For sure humanity has had major bottlenecks. We got down to, what, <10,000 at one point and still bounced back? I think ultimately it comes down to the resolver's definition of a Great Filter. My intent is to harken to mind Fermi's Paradox, where a Filter is something that prevents intelligent life from colonizing the stars, but indeed even being alive and thinking today is in some sense having made it past many thresholds. Those thresholds aren't my intended meaning, but I relinquish the reins to the wiser future.

I hope you understand why I say that. I am just laying the groundwork, and really this is a collaborative & philosophical effort with everyone here. I don't expect to be around to resolve this. Even if we here today assume a Great Filter is coming in our lifetimes, by the very definition we almost certainly wouldn't survive it, and then it's so ridiculously unlikely we would be around long enough to see humans establish self-sufficient populations on extrasolar habitable worlds that it's not worth entertaining, whatever one might think about increasingly rapid growths in technology. And certainly all of that is dramatically more true for any specific individual, such as myself.

So uh I guess it probably resolves YES but 🤷

I just have to say I love the instruction to reopen the market in 3001. If unresolved.

2000 mana in pessimistic limit orders up.

Why did this just spike?

@Qoiuoiuoiu 🤷

@Stralor "All nukes confirmed to have been launched into the sun"

AI isnt a great filter. If it was, we wouldn't see civilizations in space, but we would see AIs.

@MaxE Maybe!

@MaxE Unknown AIs in space and civilizations in space may look the same to us

@Chumchulum Indeed, that was implied to be true to make my comment make sense in this context

How do we recognize we’ve survived a bottleneck? If we settled another planet now, would that count as us surviving nuclear age?

@Tomasac1e I'd say the existential risk has to become actualized rather than theoretical. If we nuke the planet into an unlivable wasteland but still somehow survive, that seems like a clear bottleneck. Us simply having unused nukes does not.

(I realize this leaves a broad space in the middle, but I leave that up to the future resolver)

@Tomasac1e Given how many nuclear close calls there were it might've been a great filter. I'd bet most of the nearby at the time Everett branches got seriously messed up