Humanity survives a Great Filter
8
1kṀ5890
3001
94%
chance
51

Do we reach the stars? Do we continue existing after facing off with A.I. or our nuclear age? Any one instance of true existential bottleneck followed by durable populations of humans beyond the solar system resolves this YES.

There is a real possibility that this is impossible to ever fully resolve. If it closes without resolving, please reopen.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

AI isnt a great filter. If it was, we wouldn't see civilizations in space, but we would see AIs.

@MaxE Maybe!

filled a Ṁ7 NO at 39% order

How do we recognize we’ve survived a bottleneck? If we settled another planet now, would that count as us surviving nuclear age?

@Tomasac1e I'd say the existential risk has to become actualized rather than theoretical. If we nuke the planet into an unlivable wasteland but still somehow survive, that seems like a clear bottleneck. Us simply having unused nukes does not.

(I realize this leaves a broad space in the middle, but I leave that up to the future resolver)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy