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MANIFOLD
How many people will say happy birthday to me? [Gapped Buckets]
7
á¹€1ká¹€362
May 31
8%
2
12%
4-5
12%
8-10
12%
16-20
12%
32-40
11%
64-80
34%
Other

My birthday is sometime this month. Only Happy Birthdays on my birthday or at any party I have for it (may or may not be on the day) count. I will resolve at some point after said day(s). Don't bother spamming happy birthday to me on random days hoping to crank the numbers up.

Texts, emails, letters, calls, in-person happy birthdays, etc., all count. One point max per person and per message (multiple messages from one person give one point total, as does a single message from multiple people). Random ad spam from companies do not count. I don't have a Facebook or whatnot for lots of people to message me about it and so it's mostly closer personal relationships that will know the day. I expect it to be a single-digit amount (or low double digits if there's a party), but who knows.

GAPPED BUCKETS: all answers are inclusive. If the final number falls outside a bucket it resolves Other! This market is clearly not very good due to the lack of info that traders can have, but it's an experiment of the format.

I will have all the info so I won't trade.

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(I got the inspiration for this format from laughing at the comments in /MarkNicoll/how-many-reform-councillors-will-ha )