Which of the following Jimmy Carter, NFL, or Taylor Swift event will occur first?
32
688
835
resolved Jan 1
100%97%
The Chicago Bears are mathematically eliminated from NFL playoff competition
1.8%
Jimmy Carter Dies
1.2%
Taylor Swift reaches 100 Million Followers on Spotify

Taylor Swift spotify followers as measured here:
https://songstats.com/artist/i5muw4xf/taylor-swift

Chicago Bears would occur at exact time of NFL playoff elimination. If they make the playoffs, this would carry into what date they lose in the playoffs, a super bowl win would carry into the 2024 season.

Jimmy Carter death will be the closest approximate death time available (likely inferred from reporting, but exact time can be investigated if needed).

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The Chicago Bears have been eliminated from Playoff Contention.

bought Ṁ50 of Jimmy Carter Dies NO

Taylor Swift seems to be tracking at around one more month to reach 100M, this will be after the Bears' last game. Bears have a 6% chance at making the playoffs, so assuming they get eliminated, it'll happen on 12/24, 12/31, or 1/7. Jimmy Carter is at like 90 something percent to survive to the end of the year, so barring a crazy speedup in Taylor's numbers (the graph is incredibly stable) it seems like the Bears should be pretty heavy favorites.

Update:

TS at 94.6M

Chicago Bears are 4-8

Jimmy Carter remains unkillable

I really like this poll. 3 independent events, all that could ostensibly happen any time.

Taylor Swift just reached 100 mil

bought Ṁ10 of Taylor Swift reaches... YES

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