Which horses will Show (finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd) in the first ever Manifold Derby?

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Ṁ8522

resolved Mar 13

Resolved

YES

Gate #5 - TUMBLES FINANCIAL COMPLEX

Resolved

YES

Gate #6 - Aella's Fluffer

Resolved

YES

Gate #4 - LK-99

Resolved

Gate #3 - Whalebait

Resolved

Gate #2 - The Agency

Resolved

Gate #1 - Out of Mana

Original Winners Market:

TUMBLES FINANCIAL COMPLEX:

Whalebait:

The Agency:

LK-99:

Out of Mana:

Aella's Fluffer:

Resolves "YES" for the 3 horses that finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Resolves "NO" for the 3 horses that finish 4th, 5th and 6th.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@Pykess @NFL @StopPunting

Whoever created the Manifold Derby tag should add it to these two markets as well:
https://manifold.markets/Pykess/which-horse-will-place-first-in-the
https://manifold.markets/NFL/which-horse-will-place-last-in-the

That way the leaderboard will track all of them!
https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=manifold-derby

FYI @Pykess you are also able to add the tag to your market yourself as the creator, if you care to

@Tumbles I swear I tried to when I first made the market

@Pykess I don't think it existed yet but I'm not sure, maybe it did but I just now noticed

bought Ṁ100 Gate #3 - Whalebait NO

My terrible model predicts:

Likelihood of each racer placing in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd: Lane 1: 63.0000% Lane 2: 1.3875% Lane 3: 6.8000% Lane 4: 82.4750% Lane 5: 61.7500% Lane 6: 84.5875%

Which means @Gen 's limit order of 25% on 2 is quite a deal! Get in while it is hot 🔥

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