Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Vladimir Putin re-elected in Russia
Basic
10
Ṁ427resolved Apr 7
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.
Matt predicts 90% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
What will be true of Vladimir Putin in 2024?
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinet
44% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
39% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: No supreme court vacancy
78% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Unemployment rate stays below 4%
47% chance
Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold 2024 time-sensitive predictions: GPT-5 is released
80% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Positive RGDP growth for each of (Q4 2023 - Q3 2024)
65% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: No split between the popular vote and the electoral college
70% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation above 2%
66% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: No recession in 2024
70% chance