This market resolves YES if La Libertad Avanza (LLA) and PRO together control at least 90 seats in Argentina's 257-seat Chamber of Deputies following the October 26, 2025 midterm elections.
Context:
Currently LLA has 37 deputies and PRO has 35 (total: 72)
127 of 257 Chamber seats are being renewed
Polls suggest the LLA-PRO alliance could reach ~90 seats
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent called the $20B aid package a "bridge to the election" and said U.S. investment depends on "a positive election outcome"
Gaining 15-20 seats (reaching 87-92 total) would be considered a victory that maintains U.S. support
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves based on official final results from Argentina's National Electoral Chamber
Count includes all seats won by LLA and PRO parties after the October 26 election
Will resolve within 7 days of official certification of results
If LLA and PRO formally break their alliance before election day, market resolves N/A
Why 90 seats matters: This threshold represents the polling-projected target that would signal:
Milei retains political momentum despite September provincial defeat
Continued "governability" with enhanced negotiating position
Likely triggers continued U.S. financial support and foreign investment
Validates Milei's economic reforms have popular support
1,000