Will someone not currently listed on ElectionBettingOdds be elected US President in 2024?
Will someone not currently listed on ElectionBettingOdds be elected US President in 2024?
11
1kṀ1473resolved Nov 6
Resolved
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Resolves YES if someone who is not listed here, here, or here at market creation time is elected US President in 2024, NO otherwise. Full list: DeSantis, Biden, Trump, Harris, Newsom, Haley, Buttigieg, M. Obama, Pence, Pompeo, Warren, Noem, Sanders, Cruz, Cotton, Ocasio-Cortez, Rubio, Cuomo, Carlson, Hawley, Trump Jr., I. Trump, H. Clinton, Yang, Crenshaw, T. Scott, R. Scott. Anyone not on this list resolves YES.
Edit 2023-01-27: I will not bet in this market.
Edit 2023-01-27: By "listed" I mean in the candidate lists with the photos next to them, so in the unlikely event that one of the site creators or one of the authors of their recommended books is elected President, the market still resolves YES.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.