Will any month in 2024 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?
21
81
1k
2025
68%
chance

Resolution algorithm:

At the end of January 2025, consider the most recently published monthly global temperature anomaly data from NASA, in the Land+Ocean column here, or else wherever they publish data with the same meaning. (It has to be a list of numbers; a sentence in an article saying that a month had a record anomaly does not count.)

If any number for one of the months in 2024 is strictly higher than all the numbers for the months before 2024, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. If NASA has not published the relevant data by the end of January 2025, it resolves N/A instead.

I may trade in this market.

Edit 11/8: The anomaly has to be higher than the anomaly of every past month, not just the same month of every past year. For example, if the anomaly for July 2024 is higher than the anomaly for every past July, that is not enough for a YES resolution: it also has to be higher than the anomaly for every past January, February, and so on.

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bought Ṁ5 of NO

From eyeballing ECMWF SEAS5 2m anomalies from November to May, it is hard to tell from, but it looks like the first quarter of next year will be less anomalous than this month (November) and the next:

"all the numbers for the months before 2024"

Probably covers it but I think I might add an asterisk and note "(not just larger than of the same month of the year but larger than all months' anomalies)" to try to avoid any misunderstanding.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@ChristopherRandles Thanks, clarified in an edit.