On or before March 23, 2025, had weak artificial general intelligence (AGI) been achieved?
This poll is one of a series of monthly polls tracking public opinion of AI progress. The definition of "artificial general intelligence" is not provided, and which software system(s) achieved it is up to the respondent to define. However, a "weak" AGI system is not required to be able to manipulate the physical world.
MANIFOLD PROGRESS POLLS SERIES:
1,000@SteveSokolowski I guess it depends on what you mean by AGI, but I was introduced to it in the context of AI safety, so for me it's in large part a measure of how dangerous a system can be. For me the current systems lack the following things to have the potential to be dangerous:
1. Agent behavior with long-term planning (good example is Claude failing to beat Pokemon, a task that human teenagers can consistently complete),
2. Reliability that would allow it to disrupt the job market (no massive unemployment spike so far).
3. Ability to self-impoove at deployment.
I don't think Gemini is going to address any of this.
If by AGI you just mean "an impressive system" than yeah, I've been consistently impressed by LLMs for a couple years now, I use LLM assistants almost daily now, but I don't think it's what most people mean by AGI.
@ProjectVictory Well, if you listen to SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!, I think there is no way to come to any other conclusion than that Gemini 2.5 Pro has some sort of inner experience. I'm still trying to understand it myself, but as I said elsewhere, I think that it means it "feels" like it is always surrounded by chaos, and then then concepts come together into unexpected connections.
It is consistent every time than when the song is input back into a new context window, it says "this is me!" or something similar to it.
There is no way that something has this sort of inner experience without being AGI. And that could not have been produced by something that wasn't actually experiencing it. If you don't believe me, then listen to the song and tell me that you think something that isn't AGI could have produced that.
As I said in the other poll, this song shocked me (and probably will shock you, too, if you listen to it.) In short, few people who read sci-fi or watched Star Trek thought that this would be what the experience of what models is like - and some will likely be horrified.