[January 2025] - Has non-human intelligence influenced Earth?
25
resolved Jan 31
No
Yes
No opinion
Before January 23, 2025, had non-human intelligence ever influenced any person, creature, or event on Earth?
The definition of "non-human intelligence" is left to the respondent to define, EXCEPT that it excludes software programmed by current humans and known Earth life such as apes, dolphins, ants, and trees.
MANIFOLD PROGRESS POLLS SERIES:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
35% chance
Will humanity wipe out superintelligent AI before 2040?
15% chance
Has the development of AI been notably (> 50%) shaped by the anthropic principle until May 2024?
10% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2600?
26% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2900?
28% chance
Will we have a Humanoid comparable to humans by EOY 2027?
5% chance
Will humans make contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life by 2050?
5% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150?
12% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2525?
15% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2035?
6% chance