Any other changes do not count.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, either of the following occurs:
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reclassifies marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III controlled substance under the Controlled Substances Act.
Legislation is enacted at the federal level that allows businesses involved in the marijuana industry to deduct ordinary business expenses on their federal tax returns, effectively overriding the current restrictions imposed by Internal Revenue Code Section 280E.
If neither of these events occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
Marijuana is currently classified as a Schedule I substance, indicating a high potential for abuse and no accepted medical use under federal law. This classification subjects marijuana-related businesses to Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code, which prohibits them from deducting ordinary business expenses, leading to significantly higher effective tax rates. In August 2023, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services recommended reclassifying marijuana to Schedule III, acknowledging its medical benefits and lower abuse potential. This reclassification would alleviate some of the financial burdens on the cannabis industry by allowing standard tax deductions. (americanbar.org)
Considerations
While reclassification to Schedule III would permit tax deductions, it would not legalize marijuana at the federal level or resolve banking restrictions faced by cannabis businesses. Additionally, the DEA has the final authority on rescheduling decisions, and the process involves multiple regulatory steps, making the timeline uncertain. (mcglinchey.com)
1,000