How many daily active users will Manifold have on average the week prior to January 1st, 2023?
Jan 2, 2023
M$126 bet
As a follow-up to this market, I'm interested in projecting out prediction market usage in the short to medium term. Since Manifold helpfully exposes its analytics (https://manifold.markets/analytics#), I thought we could start by projecting Manifold usage out to the end of the year. In the past week, Manifold roughly averaged 70 daily active users (DAUs). In their investor memo, they say they are targeting 10k DAUs in the next year, so linear extrapolation gets us a stated target of ~7k as of 01/01/2023. I've pre-specified what should be a mutually exclusive, leaves-nothing-out set of options for this market (at @austen's suggestion) and will resolve in favor of whichever one turns out correct. If for some reason, Manifold no longer exposes its DAUs as of 01/01/2023, I'll do my best to get them some other way but resolve the market N/A if I'm unable.
StephenMalina
[1,000, 5000)
32%
StephenMalina
[100, 1,000)
26%
StephenMalina
[0, 100)
8%
StephenMalina
[5,000, 10,000)
8%
StephenMalina
[10,000, 50,000)
4%
StephenMalina
[50,000, infinity)
3%
StephenMalina
Subsidy & Discussion Thread
2%
Add your answer
StephenMalina
[1,000, 5000)
32%
StephenMalina
[100, 1,000)
26%
StephenMalina
[0, 100)
8%
StephenMalina
[5,000, 10,000)
8%
StephenMalina
[10,000, 50,000)
4%
StephenMalina
[50,000, infinity)
3%
StephenMalina
Subsidy & Discussion Thread
2%
StephenMalina

Stephen Malina bought M$125 days ago

@austen FYI: I ended up switching to the format you suggested.
Austin

Austin bought M$125 days ago

Cool! Kudos to @tetraspace for the idea
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