As a follow-up to this market, I'm interested in projecting out prediction market usage in the short to medium term. Since Manifold helpfully exposes its analytics (https://manifold.markets/analytics#), I thought we could start by projecting Manifold usage out to the end of the year. In the past week, Manifold roughly averaged 70 daily active users (DAUs). In their investor memo, they say they are targeting 10k DAUs in the next year, so linear extrapolation gets us a stated target of ~7k as of 01/01/2023. I've pre-specified what should be a mutually exclusive, leaves-nothing-out set of options for this market (at @austen's suggestion) and will resolve in favor of whichever one turns out correct. If for some reason, Manifold no longer exposes its DAUs as of 01/01/2023, I'll do my best to get them some other way but resolve the market N/A if I'm unable.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 2:16 pm