As a follow-up to this market, I'm interested in projecting out prediction market usage in the short to medium term. Since Manifold helpfully exposes its analytics (https://manifold.markets/analytics#), I thought we could start by projecting Manifold usage out to the end of the year. In the past week, Manifold roughly averaged 70 daily active users (DAUs). In their investor memo, they say they are targeting 10k DAUs in the next year, so linear extrapolation gets us a stated target of ~7k as of 01/01/2023. I've pre-specified what should be a mutually exclusive, leaves-nothing-out set of options for this market (at @austen's suggestion) and will resolve in favor of whichever one turns out correct. If for some reason, Manifold no longer exposes its DAUs as of 01/01/2023, I'll do my best to get them some other way but resolve the market N/A if I'm unable.
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 2:16 pm
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@StephenMalina will wait to resolve until tomorrow just to make sure it's the same as of 01/01 since if the 01/01 # is above 1000, I may resolve to multiple as the description was ambiguous.
@o yeah unfortunately I didn't design this market well to be able to split out smaller subsets. If you think it's big, the best incentive right now is for you to invest in it.
@StephenMalina [1000, 5000) feels like a big range, but i don't see the incentive to create its subsets