On June 30 2024, who will have the top ranking model on the LMSYS ELO board?
Basic
32
3.6k
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
YES
OpenAI
Resolved
NO
Anthropic
Resolved
NO
Google
Resolved
NO
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bought Ṁ50 OpenAI YES

@0xSMW does this resolved based on the "elo" column, and if so, what happens in the unlikely case that two tie (presumably 50/50 resolution)? Or based on the "rank" column, such that there could be multiple top-ranking models?

Also, presumably this is based on the leaderboard at the market resolution time? It could change during the day on June 30.

Will measure July 1

bought Ṁ100 OpenAI YES

@0xSMW okay, I'm going to assume this is resolving based on the elo column because it says "the top ranking model" rather than "a top ranking model."

There’s no gotchas here. In the unlikely event of ties, I’ll let you know.

For everyone else reading this, there’s currently a 16 point spread between the top two models. This spread is 2x larger than the error confidence interval.