Sinner is looking to complete his career grand slam at Rolland Garros this year. After winning four masters tournaments in quick succession, some people have expressed concerns that playing in the Italian Open would compromise him physically ahead of the French Open.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
-Will resolve no if he wins FO
-Will almost certainly resolve yes if he withdraws ahead of Rolland Garros, unless there is some other known cause somehow completely unrelated to the Italian Open.
-Beyond that it is somewhat up to my judgement. Will consider him demonstrating large amount of fatigue in a loss, especially in a situation he would not typically struggle in (no excessive heat for instance).
- Massive fatigue/severely limited mobility or retirement in one five setter probably would not be enough for significant fatigue under normal circumstances, since to my judgement he did not drop his level much in the final last year
- Several long matches would be enough to justify normal circumstances for exhaustion
-Fatigue in extremely hot weather would probably not resolve to yes
-I would be inclined to resolve yes in the case of injury, since playing more would probably increase the risk. Might do a partial resolution there though, depending on how much it seems like overuse vs just some freak accident.
-If he shows abnormal amounts of fatigue, but goes on to win, then loses a latter match without showing fatigue, it will resolve to no
Since this is pretty subjective, I will not bet on this market.