above 99.5% —> YES below 0.5%—> NO

Self-resolving•Meta-markets•Game theory

155

Ṁ51

Ṁ130

2026

44%

chance

ALL

If > 99.5% (for 24 hours), resolve to YES

If < 0.5% (for 24 hours), resolve to NO

I will bet in this market to play against y’all, but I will stick to the resolution rule

Get Ṁ200 play money

3 Comments

3 Holders

16 Trades

Sort by:

With trading now limited to the 1-99% range, it's now literally impossible for this market to resolve 😂

the 24h makes it impossible for anyone to win as anyone with just a couple hundreds can send it right back up/down

@GastonKessler I realized that...

it was meant to be an experiment. next time i will make it 3% or something, so fighting back will be much harder

Related in Self-resolving

If the chance for this market to resolve is even, this market will resolve yes. Otherwise it resolves no.

48% chance

What % of respondents to this question will believe "UFOs are alien spacecraft" on January 1, 2030?

See more Self-resolving questions

Related in Meta-markets

How will @firstuserhere personal markets resolve? [ADD ANSWERS]

🪄Which Hogwarts house will Manifold sort John Yossarian (Catch 22) into?

See more Meta-markets questions

Related in Game theory

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

37% chance

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

21% chance

See more Game theory questions

Self-resolving questions