Ukrainian Forces Will Have Captured Moscow by Jan 1st, 2023
Ukrainian Forces Will Have Captured Moscow by Jan 1st, 2023
37
520Ṁ7540resolved Sep 30
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N/A1D
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This market will resolve to YES if Ukrainian forces have captured Moscow by January 1st, 2023.
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@belikewater It's not cancelled, just unlisted from the main page so a prank doesn't confuse new users.
@Spindle Well, lying about lying on Twitter on MM is also not going to lead to any negative consequences, so I don't trust you on that, but more importantly, lying on Discord fewer negative consequences than lying on MM. I predict that this will resolve honorably.
Also, I'd be interested if MM Spindle is willing to confirm that Discord Spindle is the same person?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.