Will Manifold have a Question Type for nearly-continuous numerical value predictions by the end of 2024?
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51
170
2025
82%
chance

Currently any market on Manifold that asks for predictions of a nearly-continuous numerical value requires users to bet on specific buckets of values. These markets include "How many people...?", "How much money...?", "On what date...?", etc. The answers are usually split into buckets, e.g. tens or thousands or millions of people or dollars, weeks or months, etc, and the buckets rarely number more than 5-10.

By the end of 2024, will Manifold add a new question type, or improve the functionality of an existing type, that allows each user to bet on their own precise prediction of the outcome (e.g. a specific non-round number of people, amount of money, or date (and time?)), rather than selecting from predefined buckets or paying to add a new bucket to a multiple choice question that may overlap with existing buckets?

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