Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Daniel Kokotajlo publicly states or writes that the state-of-the-art large language model release(s) in 2025 after April 3rd have caused him to increase his estimated timeline for the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI). This must be a clear statement attributing the timeline extension specifically to 2025 LLM releases.

(Increase means the amount of time it takes will increase; that is, things will go slower.)

The market resolves to NO if:

• Kokotajlo does not make such a statement by the end of 2025

• He explicitly states that 2025 LLM releases have not changed or have decreased his AGI timeline estimate

• He makes no public comment on how 2025 LLM releases affect his AGI timeline

• Kokotajlo's timeline increases, but not due to dissapointing LLM releases. Instead, something like a war in Taiwan or a market crash may make AGI development happen slower than currently expected by him.

This market resolves to NA if:

• He makes no public comment on how 2025 LLM releases affect his AGI timeline

• He makes conflicting public comments that make it difficult to determine his overall view
  

I will wait until the end of year 2025, because it is possible he changes his mind at various points through the year. For example, GPT-5 might initially be disappointing, but then later in 2025 Gemini 3.0 exceeds expectations.

Background

Daniel Kokotajlo is a researcher known for his work on AI alignment and forecasting AI development timelines. He has previously published analyses and predictions regarding the development of artificial general intelligence.

State-of-the-art (SOTA) large language models are the most advanced AI language systems available at a given time. GPT-5, Claude 4, DeepSeek-R2, Gemini 3.0, and Grok 4 are all models which will likely be released this year.

Daniel recently co-authored https://ai-2027.com on April 3rd, 2025. This question is aiming to basically ask, "will the models released after that report be less good than expected (to him)?"

• Update 2025-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications from the Creator:

  • Statements where Kokotajlo indicates that the release has influenced (i.e., increased) his median forecast should be taken as a YES resolution if he uses terms such as slightly influenced, moderately influenced, significantly influenced, or completely influenced.

  • The term just barely influenced is not considered sufficient to trigger a YES resolution.