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The new sequel:

https://manifold.markets/SophiaLaird/each-choice-on-this-market-will-res-cb0519d2a508

Each choice on this market will resolve to the truth of its associated statement: FREE RESPONSE EDITION

This market is exactly what it says on the tin: an option will pay out if the associated statement is (to the best of my knowledge) true when this market resolves. I have made similar markets in the past, one of which is linked below. I request that all user submitted “answers” remain self resolvin…

Anyone know whether the "second highest or lowest" one is above or below the "divisible by 5" one?

It would bring me great joy if someone drops ~175K on decimal NO

for anyone interested in paying me to make something resolves a way, dm me at @deadrhinoo on discord

Pros

• Don't have to risk your own mana on manipulation

• I'll make it so you don't lose any mana, unless you purposely stop my market manipulation

• This effectively makes it riskless profit

• I possibly have more mana to use to manipulate it

Cons

• Less profit due to having pay me

• Prices might be kinda high, I haven't decided yet but we can negotiate

Only one week left!!! Running out of time to move the market!! Y’all should buy a buncha shares so I can make mana off of limit orders!!

@SophiaLaird Can you explain how "This statement will cash out if its % chance has no decimals" works? Does that mean it just has to be in between 2% and 98%?

If the last one is tied for highest or lowest, does it cash out?

How do you see if the % chance has no decimals??

@ShadowyZephyr I assume in this case it means "this statement will cash out if it's above 1% and below 99%," since below 1%/above 99% is when Manifold starts displaying decimals.

@evergreenemily Actually, I think it needs to be above 2% and below 98% for that to happen, but yes, that is my interpretation as well, in which case that option is severely underpriced (though maybe the pricing just reflects that people are unsure of how to interpret it).

@SophiaLaird can you ask the admins to re-resolve the past market so that the primes and evens have a fifty-fifty split?

@VihaanGupta I probably won't, but I'll try to do an even percentage split this time.

@SophiaLaird You should though, you made a lot of people lose out on mana

@SavioMak i have an offer to refund everyone who lost mana from that

I assume "This statement will cash out if its % chance has no decimals" means "if the displayed probability has no decimals", i.e. as long as it is >2.0% and <98.0%.

@JosephNoonan If it's 50.5%, it will resolve no. If that's impossible, then your statement is likely to be true -- but no guarantees.

@SophiaLaird But what do you mean by "the % chance"? Do you mean the true, underlying probabilities that you can get from the API, or the probabilities displayed on each option? It's impossible for it to display a probability of 50.5% unless the devs change the UI or some weird glitch happens, but it's pretty much certain that the underlying probability won't be an exact whole percentage.

month long market duration seems a little excessive for a market that will be entirely decided in the last few seconds of trading