Read the statements. Any statements that are true when this market ends will cash out.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,050 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,843 | |
| 3 | Ṁ891 | |
| 4 | Ṁ573 | |
| 5 | Ṁ377 |
@ChrisCanas the thing is, you lost mana due to betting on the wrong option, im just refunding people who lost mana due to it resolving 85/15 instead of 50/50
@SophiaLaird, did you mean to resolve this market 85% to one option and 15% to another? Seems like it should have resolved 50% to each. You can ask the admins to re-resolve the market if you want.
@SophiaLaird Can you ask the admins to re-resolve this market so that the primes and evens have a fifty-fifty split?
@DeadRhino Ambiguities like that don't really matter, though. Unless otherwise specified, stating that a market resolves to multiple options means that it resolves to all of them equally. That was clearly the expectation of all the traders here. Creators aren't supposed to use ambiguities to mislead traders (that violates the community guidelines), and if this market had intentionally been resolved in the unexpected way that it did, it would be a clear violation of those guidelines. In this case, though, it was almost certainly not done maliciously, since apparently Manifold made "weight each resolution by the current % of the options" into the default setting for "resolves to multiple". Why they would do that is beyond me, since I can't imagine many scenarios where anyone would want to use the default option.
IMO, the creator should ask for a re-resolve to 50% each, since that's how everyone interpreted the resolution criteria and probably what the creator intended anyway.
@JosephNoonan Relevant:
https://manifold.markets/SophiaLaird/i-messed-up-on-my-previous-market-w
(I've bet YES because I think this qualifies as a misresolution, due to it being misleading and the group this market was placed in)
@SophiaLaird Yes, I would like to understand the 85/15 split as well, I was definitely expecting 50/50 resolution.
@cece i think what happened is that they just pressed resolve multiple and chose multiple options, which manifold automatically weights based on market percentage
@DeadRhino Yeah, it's something to watch out for - I've never seen it actually help, I've only ever seen people resolve like that accidentally. I did try to warn against it in a comment below.
@VihaanGupta I'm assuming the question here is why you lost money. This would be because you likely bet higher than the percentages one of (or both of) the options resolved to.
For instance, say we had a multiple choice market saying "Which teams will make the NBA playoffs?" Naturally there would be 30 choices (starting with ~3% each), and 16 of these (past the play-ins) options would resolve with equal percentage (~6%).
However, let's say the Denver Nuggets are obviously making the playoffs- they're breaking records, having a historic season, etc. A common mistake made here is betting the Nuggets percentage way high. We all know they're making the playoffs, right? There's a high chance they make the playoffs. However, they could make the playoffs at the #1 seed with 0 losses, or at the #8 seed as the underdog- it doesn't matter, since they would still resolve to ~6%. So even if I think there's a 90% chance they make the playoffs, if I bet their percentage up to 90%, I would lose money, since they only resolve to 6%. It's like when markets resolve to percentages.
I, for one, lost money on this market, since I placed a limit order where I bet down too much on the primes option and resulted in me losing money. I didn't think of this when placing my order; however, I still ensured that I would at least pocket a little of my cash (although I do wish I had thought about it more thoroughly).
So you should, in the end, lose money, but not everything you bet. Hope this helps. (If I am mistaken anywhere in this explanation please let me know and I will fix it ASAP.)
@VihaanGupta partly this, but also you have a M412 loss from the "highest or lowest" option, and according to trade history, you had a near-zero payout from the "prime" option (pun not intended) at close. as for the "even" one, your shares totaled to approx. M1617 (*0.15 = M242, rounded, in above message). so your little payout is due to lack of shares at close, and the -M471 profit is due to a 412 loss, overshotting, and (possibly) loss from selling :)
@cloe the highest or lowest market I already gave up on - I was not counting the huge loss from that market. I think that the primes and even should resolve to both 50% - the conditions of the market do not state that it would be resolved like this.
