Each choice on this market will resolve to the truth of its associated statement.
41
16k
resolved Jun 28
85%43%
This statement will cash out if its % chance is prime.
15%8%
This statement will cash out if its % chance is even.
42%
This statement will cash out if its % chance is the highest OR the lowest.
6%
This statement will cash out if its % chance is equal to the % chance of a different statement.
1.0%
This statement will cash out if no other statements are true when the market ends.

Read the statements. Any statements that are true when this market ends will cash out.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
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2Ṁ1,843
3Ṁ891
4Ṁ573
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if anyone lost a significant amount of mana from the different resolution, post a screenshot of your shares and your discord (if i dont already have it) and i'll try to refund you (i might cutoff this deal if it gets too expensive)

@DeadRhino I ate it pretty good and I don't think you should refund anyone. The game is the game.

@ChrisCanas the thing is, you lost mana due to betting on the wrong option, im just refunding people who lost mana due to it resolving 85/15 instead of 50/50

@DeadRhino oh I see, my mistake.

@SophiaLaird, did you mean to resolve this market 85% to one option and 15% to another? Seems like it should have resolved 50% to each. You can ask the admins to re-resolve the market if you want.

The sequel:

@SophiaLaird Can you ask the admins to re-resolve this market so that the primes and evens have a fifty-fifty split?

@VihaanGupta i mean technically it just says "payout" and not how much

@DeadRhino wait it says cashout oops

@DeadRhino Ambiguities like that don't really matter, though. Unless otherwise specified, stating that a market resolves to multiple options means that it resolves to all of them equally. That was clearly the expectation of all the traders here. Creators aren't supposed to use ambiguities to mislead traders (that violates the community guidelines), and if this market had intentionally been resolved in the unexpected way that it did, it would be a clear violation of those guidelines. In this case, though, it was almost certainly not done maliciously, since apparently Manifold made "weight each resolution by the current % of the options" into the default setting for "resolves to multiple". Why they would do that is beyond me, since I can't imagine many scenarios where anyone would want to use the default option.

IMO, the creator should ask for a re-resolve to 50% each, since that's how everyone interpreted the resolution criteria and probably what the creator intended anyway.

@JosephNoonan I expected this.

wait i'm a little confused. i have a 2901 payout for prime and a 155 payout for even, and since those two will be resolved each to 50%, would i get 2901/2 + 155/2 = 1528 payout?

@cece Sounds right.

@SophiaLaird Yes, I would like to understand the 85/15 split as well, I was definitely expecting 50/50 resolution.

@cece i think what happened is that they just pressed resolve multiple and chose multiple options, which manifold automatically weights based on market percentage

@DeadRhino i love our profit

@DeadRhino Yeah, it's something to watch out for - I've never seen it actually help, I've only ever seen people resolve like that accidentally. I did try to warn against it in a comment below.

@VihaanGupta I'm assuming the question here is why you lost money. This would be because you likely bet higher than the percentages one of (or both of) the options resolved to.

For instance, say we had a multiple choice market saying "Which teams will make the NBA playoffs?" Naturally there would be 30 choices (starting with ~3% each), and 16 of these (past the play-ins) options would resolve with equal percentage (~6%).

However, let's say the Denver Nuggets are obviously making the playoffs- they're breaking records, having a historic season, etc. A common mistake made here is betting the Nuggets percentage way high. We all know they're making the playoffs, right? There's a high chance they make the playoffs. However, they could make the playoffs at the #1 seed with 0 losses, or at the #8 seed as the underdog- it doesn't matter, since they would still resolve to ~6%. So even if I think there's a 90% chance they make the playoffs, if I bet their percentage up to 90%, I would lose money, since they only resolve to 6%. It's like when markets resolve to percentages.

I, for one, lost money on this market, since I placed a limit order where I bet down too much on the primes option and resulted in me losing money. I didn't think of this when placing my order; however, I still ensured that I would at least pocket a little of my cash (although I do wish I had thought about it more thoroughly).

So you should, in the end, lose money, but not everything you bet. Hope this helps. (If I am mistaken anywhere in this explanation please let me know and I will fix it ASAP.)

@VihaanGupta partly this, but also you have a M412 loss from the "highest or lowest" option, and according to trade history, you had a near-zero payout from the "prime" option (pun not intended) at close. as for the "even" one, your shares totaled to approx. M1617 (*0.15 = M242, rounded, in above message). so your little payout is due to lack of shares at close, and the -M471 profit is due to a 412 loss, overshotting, and (possibly) loss from selling :)

@VihaanGupta + 15% which sliced it into thirds

@cloe the highest or lowest market I already gave up on - I was not counting the huge loss from that market. I think that the primes and even should resolve to both 50% - the conditions of the market do not state that it would be resolved like this.

Note to self: Never participate in popular self-resolving markets

@tb148 Yes participate. This was fun!

@IlyaXValmianski my internet is too slow to win

@tb148 Just like Wall Street! The fastest internet wins.