Will Sam Altman start a new company before 2025?
Dec 31

Resolution Criteria

  • The market resolves to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2024, Sam Altman has publicly announced the founding of a new company where he is an official co-founder or equivalent founding member.

  • It resolves to “No” if there is no such announcement by this date.

  • The announcement must be verifiable through credible media outlets, press releases, or official statements from Sam Altman.

  • If Sam Altman joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity.


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He is raising tons of money for outside ventures. He owns no shares in OpenAI so he has to do something to make money. He has a number of other existing ventures. This is an obvious Yes.

predicts NO

@BTE are you sure he is raising money under his own name and not OpenAI? I have a seperate question for the AI chips venture rumors but for OpenAI not Sam.

I guess both would resolve Yes if he is considered a founder and OpenAI puts money into it.

predicts YES

@Soli He started an independent VC fund last year. He is incentivized NOT to do anything under Open AI.

predicts YES

@BTE came here to say this - remains to be seen, but the headlines in recent days effectively say he's fundraising "for a new AI chip venture."


Based on everything I was able to gather there might have been an intention to create a separate entity under Microsoft which would be led by Sam but it seems did not go through. It is even questionable if such an entity would have been considered a separate company so I am strongly leaning towards it doesn’t count towards resolving this market. I am open for counter arguments but I don’t want this market to trade based on the ambiguity of the situation.

2 traders bought Ṁ1,022 NO
predicts YES

Does this count even if he founds a side company while continuing to primarily work at OpenAI?

only if he's a founder or cofounder title!

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Microsoft created a new entity for him and he maintained his CEO title. So this should count.

@BTE I am a bit hesitant to share my thoughts when the market is still open but I hope everyone who participated in this market read the description.

@BTE I see you increased your YES position, do you still believe that the microsoft announcement should count (-> this resolves yes) or are you buying because you believe Sam will start a company before 2025?

predicts YES

@Soli I bought when i read that he has in the last six months started a new fund and he was in Saudi Arabia recently raising money for a new venture with Johnny Ive to build a device which I do not think will be part of OpenAI.

predicts YES

@Soli If this market was created before the Microsoft announcement then it should probably resolve YES because he was the CEO of a new company owned by Microsoft. But it would be better to wait to see if he starts an independent company. I think someone like Sam can't help themselves, all they think about is starting and running companies.

predicts NO

@BTE That’s a bit weird to say that the AI division is a separated company from Microsoft. Satya literally said it’s Microsoft’s new AI Group without a company name.

predicts YES

@esusatyo It doesn't matter anyway since it's explicitly excluded.

“If Sam Altman joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity.”

bought Ṁ1,586 of YES

WHY was this at 20-something %????

bought Ṁ250 of NO

@Joghn I bought this down while buying a similar market up- arbitrage + hedging my positions

bought Ṁ349 of YES

@firstuserhere mmmmm i see

thank you for the free play money

Odds here are not right. I have a rule not to participate in my own markets so I won’t fix

@Soli he could in theory return to OpenAI and start a new company 🤷🏻‍♂️ so judge by yourself

predicts YES

@Soli I’m hoping on that. I’m being obliterated by @sama markets

@JaimeSantaCruz Yeah the past 48 hours have been a crazy 🎢 I got lucky and sold my position yesterday for very wrong reasons - I thought he would prefer to build in silent mode for a couple of years after getting so much publicity the past year

@JaimeSantaCruz happy for you Jaime ;)

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