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@traders as communicated earlier I waited for a couple of days for a strong argument against Yes to emerge or new evidence confirming that the layoffs indeed exceeded 1000. The reason for resolving as Yes can be found in the pinned comment below. Thank you all for your patience and for participating in this market.
So Polymarket resolved as Yes. I would appreciate it if @traders on both sides could make the case for how this market should be resolved. I am leaning towards Yes since Google has an obvious incentive to downplay the numbers. To me, it seems that the layoffs affected multiple departments + the announcement here from the Workers Union.
@Soli whoops, i dont usually rate resolutions, mustve accidentally clicked it. ill try to rerate it if they let me
@traders as communicated earlier I waited for a couple of days for a strong argument against Yes to emerge or new evidence confirming that the layoffs indeed exceeded 1000. The reason for resolving as Yes can be found in the pinned comment below. Thank you all for your patience and for participating in this market.
So Polymarket resolved as Yes. I would appreciate it if @traders on both sides could make the case for how this market should be resolved. I am leaning towards Yes since Google has an obvious incentive to downplay the numbers. To me, it seems that the layoffs affected multiple departments + the announcement here from the Workers Union.
@Soli The original layoff had 703 validated layoffs, in California only. The ad sales team laid off "a few hundreds", which at minimum is 200, and then the Youtube layoffs were "around 100" which I think we can confidently say is at least 70. Total is 973. But that's really the bare minimum.
Google filed another WARN report in New York for 225 employes. I can't say for sure if that's only for the first wave or all of them, but that gives us a minimum of 928 laid off only in California and New York, and that doesn't even include the later layoffs in California.
I think it's abundantly clear that it was above 1000
@Shump While there is a very high probability that it's statistically more than 928, I would still wait a few days for confirmation. A lot of unknown layoffs are probably because of severance, NDA or unannounced, but you cannot prove that.
I would suggest waiting a little longer till >1000 is officially confirmed for January 2024 by either a union or google.
@snarkyalyx I don’t see a solid reason not to wait something between 4-7 days. However, I would prefer not to wait any longer than this since some participants have significant Mana locked in this market. If no new evidence is presented or a precise date not too far in the future is specified, I would probably resolve yes based on available evidence. Does this make sense to you?
Also, you mentioned waiting for an announcement from the Union, didn’t we get one already or am I misunderstanding something here?
cc: @Shump
@Soli A Yes resolution seems best to me. We don't know the exact number but over 1000 seems a lot more likely than less than 1000.
@Soli I certainly think there's sufficient evidence for it to resolve YES, but I just want to add that my position at least shouldn't influence when you resolve. I have plenty of cash on hand outside of this market and I'm not actively trading that much anyway.
@notarealuser I have no idea - I wanted confirmation to avoid ambiguity. Still, I have not seen any announcement from Google confirming that over 1000 employees were fired or any highly credible reporting. I think it makes sense to wait and see how Polymarket resolves but I am not planning on copying them just maybe they do some useful research.
More layoffs announced today, but the number of affected positions isn't listed: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/google-parent-alphabet-laying-off-innovation-lab-workers.amp
@TimothyJohnson5c16 my conspiracy theory is that google PR will downplay the actual numbers to preserve company reputation. if they officially confirmed ~800, then it's probably much worse than that
@slither That's the same press release discussed below. Polymarket still at 83%, my strategy here is honestly just to buy no as long as that real money market doesn't move above 90.
Not sure if trustworthy, but here it says "In January 2024, the technology conglomerate said that more than 1,000 employee cuts had occurred far."
https://www.crn.com/news/cloud/2024/google-layoffs-continue-in-2024-as-hundreds-cut-from-ad-sales
@nic_kup That article, which I concur is sketch, sources from Business Insider, which in turn sources from this press release from the Alphabet Workers Union.
https://www.alphabetworkersunion.org/press/statement-on-jan-2024-layoffs
@MattCWilson it should technically be when employees are given notice. (That's the usual meaning of being fired). So if google only say they intend to lay off people later this year that's not sufficient. But it's not necessary for employees to already go home by Feb.
Should I resolve this market early for the sake of freeing the Mana or should I rather wait till the end of the month? You can help me resolve early by replying to this comment with evidence that the layoffs exceeded 1000 and mentioning the largest NO holders so that they have time to respond.
@Soli So, the largest no holder on polymarket is @Domer and I think he made a good argument in the comments there:
If the 1000+ number is just something being regurgitated with no original, official source then that polymarket may yet resolve no. It's at 80% there now, presumably because they expect more details to emerge and more jobs to be cut by the end of the month. But if it could definitely resolve now, it'd be at 99¢ on polymarket.
Can this market resolve yes when Polymarket potentially resolves no?
@Joshua I sold my position a few days ago after seeing the union numbers and thinking they'd be confirmed. I would have expected polymarket to resolve yes by now, and am surprised to see that it hasn't so I'm buying back in on No. If someone could have proven this, they'd have already done so on Polymarket.
As @Shump points out below, we must surely be very close to 1000 if we had ~800 confirmed and now ~100 from YouTube. But I don't think it's proven to be over 1k yet
@Joshua thank you for the input. Both markets should resolve the same way since the resolution criteria are similar. However, this doesn't mean I would blindly copy whatever happens there. It is best to wait and see until more evidence emerges.
@Joshua There's the original 800, about 100 in Youtube, and "a few hundreds" on the ad sales team. Should be more than 1000. No harm in waiting for confirmation though.
@Joshua where's the 800 coming from?
What's the source?
Trying to make sure this is distinct from the 100 of youtube and few hundreds of ad sales.
@Soli google laid off 1k based on Alphabet Workers Union
https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/11/google-alphabet-layoffs
@trixwit AWU is a US-only organisation, right? So their numbers wouldn't include any overseas layoffs, which presumably there were at least some of.
@Strigoides no idea, but typically US workers are hit the hardest because they have the highest salaries. other parts of world have a lot lower salaries and stronger worker's rights
@Strigoides Proof there were at least a few foreign layoffs: https://www.haaretz.co.il/tmr/technation/2024-01-17/ty-article/.premium/0000018d-1783-d695-a3dd-57a774b80000?utm_source=App_Share&utm_medium=Android_Native&utm_campaign=Share
@Joshua What's the evidence that the union is basing their number off what The Verge reported?
@Strigoides I don't there's a proof for it. It's just a theory by someone in polymarket.