Will Elon’s new startup xAI launch a publically accessible AI model (not waitlist) before the end of 2023?
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resolved Dec 18
Resolved
YES
I will close this question in 16 hours. According to all the evidence that was presented to me it seems that Grok is available in more than 1 country to all X Premium+ Subscribers. If everything stays as it is now I will resolve as Yes directly after the questions closes in 16 hours.
Dec 18

PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION

Users should be able to download the app or access the web-app from a browser. The app has to be available in atleast two different countries and there should not be any other requirements to access the app other than geographical.

Edit: A product available only to X premium users would resolve this question to yes since in theory anyone can pay to use it.

EditTwo: If the product is in the middle of being rolled-out to users it doesn’t count. The roll-out has to be completed.

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@BigMoneySwag where did you hear this funny rumor? It is the first time I hear it. Can you back it up?

predicted YES

@Soli Think we'd notice if it was ChatGPT

I will close this question in 16 hours. According to all the evidence that was presented to me it seems that Grok is available in more than 1 country to all X Premium+ Subscribers. If everything stays as it is now I will resolve as Yes directly after the questions closes in 16 hours.

predicted YES

👏

@Soli

I never doubted it for a second!

predicted YES

@Soli Any updates on this resolving?

@SirCryptomind I can’t test since I am in Germany, did someone outside US confirm access

predicted YES

@Soli I will ask in Discord. I am US , so I can't check either.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@SirCryptomind Oh man can you imagine if these are all A/B partial rollouts until after New Years?

predicted YES

@Panfilo My New Years Resolution Will Be To Never Bet On AN Ai Market For 2024 If This Is Not A YES Resolution. 🤣

predicted YES

spoke to some friends in NZ who have Premium+ and confirmed Grok access

predicted YES

not sure if this adds any confidence whatsoever or what you want to back this up but sounds promising? obviously not sure how to poll the entire premium+ user base there but the response was such that it wasn't even a question that they would be able to use it as subscribers.

predicted YES

@shankypanky thank you Stefanie!! I think this is enough for now. I will wait 16 hours and resolve as Yes if no one is able to provide any evidence of Premium+ Users not being able to access Grok in the specified countries.

predicted YES

@Soli nice one - thanks for the update and (hopefully) swift resolution Soli!

@SirCryptomind don't worry it is looking good :) - you should have your profits in two hours

predicted YES

just a little reminder that it's closed but still needs to be resolved 🧡

bought Ṁ3,000 of YES
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
bought Ṁ4,000 of YES

There it is @Soli, resolves YES!

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Technically it has to be fully rolled out in at least 2 countries, so I don't think it can resolve to YES yet.

Does seem likely that it will resolve YES though.

predicted YES

@FaulSname I am interpreting the above tweet as implying a full rollout is complete. Do you see anything to suggest otherwise?

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington as of 14 hours ago (i.e. after the tweet) the rollout was still in progress in India.

  • Once you have subscribed, follow these steps to use Grok AI:

  • Visit the official Grok AI website at grok.x.ai.

  • If you are in a supported location, verify your X account to join the waitlist.

predicted YES

@FaulSname that bit about the waitlist sounds like out of date info. I suspect the article is just going on the same info we are (the tweet from Musk), and is being conservative by describing it as in progress.

Maybe I'll sign up (from Australia) and see if it is available for me. If it is, proves nothing, but if it isn't, proves it's still in progress.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Unless the rollout is pretty much immediate, I don't see how this post can both be the first annoucement of expanding to other countries and the notice that it is complete. That being said, I already accepted the fact that all my mana will be lost, there's probably just a few more days needed.

predicted YES

@Shump So the tweet says "The following countries can now grok". My priors for a rollout being rapid (~hours) and then announced basically when it's done are reasonably high. After all, they've done the US and immediate problems will have surfaced, they could be more aggressive with the rest of the rollout.

Nonetheless I heard from someone in India that they can't access it yet, so that's evidence there is indeed a rollout in progress. But I don't think these tweets imply it!

@chrisjbillington I will wait for 1-2 more days to see what is being reported and then resolve as Yes if the rollout is completed by then in atleast two countries.

If you have strong evidence that this criteria is already fullfilled, then I can also resolve today.

@Shump sorry for you loss

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