When will an open-source AI video model comparable to Sora from OpenAI be released?
Basic
26
Ṁ1.1kDec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
26%
before 2025 (within ~1 year)
71%
before 2026 (within ~2 years)
89%
before 2027 (within ~3 years)
16%
later/never
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OpenAI basically hired one of the guys from the Diffusion Transformers paper and helped him scale it up. Paper came out December 19, 2022; initial model finished training March 2023. Then they kind of sat on it all year while making improvements.
Manifolders consider themselves AI experts, so some trader here will surely knock out a clone in 3 months to claim the free mana. So definitely this year.
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38% chance
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57% chance
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?
32% chance
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When will OpenAI release an AI Video model (sora) with audio/sound?
Will there be an open source video model roughly as good as OpenAI Sora by the end of 2024?
24% chance
When will OpenAI release video generation model to general public?
Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?
51% chance
When will OpenAI's Sora be publicly available?
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